At NESN, I wrote an article theorizing if Jacoby Ellsbury could add power to his game.
I drew quick and dirty comparisons to Johnny Damon and Carl Crawford, arguing that Ellsbury can expect to see an uptick in power production in the future. I wanted to expound on this here. First, money quotes from the article:
Looking beyond 2010, however, could the fleet-footed left fielder develop more of a power stroke? Power is widely considered by scouts to be the last aspect of a player’s game to develop.
Ellsbury is unlikely to become another Manny Ramirez, capable of dropping 40 bombs on the opposition. What he’s likely to do, however, is tack on several more home runs to his annual totals as the years go by, while retaining the other aspects of his game that make him so valuable today.
Baseball is a game of evolution. The game that’s being played on the field now, while under similar rules hearkening all the way back to the inception of the game, is drastically different. The original version of the game had one or two starting pitchers racking up hundreds of innings with minuscule ERAs due to a hitter’s inability to drive the ball. Heck, a player named Baker was given the nickname “Home Run” for cranking 12 in 1913. Pitcher endurance has declined while velocity has risen. Home runs have rose while sacrifice bunts and stolen bases (despite the latter’s burgeoning come back) have gone away.
The same can be said of an evolution over a player’s career. Damon, as I cited, was a speedy center fielder who later filled out and packed on pounds, driving the ball more. As he went into his late 30s, his speed has slipped. We saw part of his evolution in Boston, as he tried to put together his new identity. In 2002, he hit .286 with a .157 isolated power mark. A .316 mark was posted in 2005, albeit with a .123 ISO. I think the evolution of Johnny Damon puts things in proper perspective for Ellsbury. I think that we can expect Ellsbury to soon add some more power to his game, and he’ll spend several very productive years as an influential hitter before the cracks start to show.
What do you think?