As we enter 2010 the Red Sox have made large strides to lock up the core of their young players through their arbitration and early free agency years. That raises the question why the Red Sox have apparently made no attempts to start talks to extend him through arbitration starting next season.
Obviously from the title I think the first reason is his agent. Scott Boras as of 2005 had a league average winning percentage in arbitration according to this THT article by Dave Studman. So there isn’t a reason to think he will be tougher to handle in front of an arbitrator. As usual though it will be tough to address his free agency years with Boras who stands strong for getting his clients to free agency as soon as possible.
Perhaps we think Elsbury will be different, but there is a reason he signed with Boras and it won’t be easy. We all know Theo Epstein likes to avoid arbitration, but will he want to lock up Ellsbury and can he? While we make a lot of comments here about Ellsbury’s defense and inability to walk it’s pretty sure the Red Sox think Ellsbury can be the 3.4 WAR player from 2008 again.
Based on his 2010 CHONE projection Ellsbury is a 3.7 WAR player this year. Being only 26 this year it’s safe to assume he’ll be at least at that level through his arbitration years and even a year or two of free agency. The accepted value for arbitration is 40% of value in year one and 60% in year two and 80% in the final season. Based on that Ellsbury is looking roughly at the value of $30 million or $6.6 in 2011, $10 in 2012 and $13 in 2013.
If we then add in an option year for 2014 at $16.6 million you have a 3/$30 with a $16.6 million option. That contract looks above the value given to Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, but something they may have to do to add a Boras client.
Looking at these numbers I think it’s not a bad idea to wait at least until another year of data to decide on the future of Ellsbury with the Red Sox. As has been discussed excessively is Ellsbury’s defense. CHONE thinks Ellsbury will be great this year with a defensive value of 12.3 runs above average. If that projection is wrong his value plummets to an average player around 2 WAR.
This is why a contract right now might be tough to stomach for the team as his value is tough to access. If he is a 2 WAR player his deal would be more like 3/$16.2. That is a huge swing and even for a team like the Red Sox with a large budget is not something they have to address right away.
My opinion is that you make a long term deal after 2010 if he proves he can play better defense and supply 3 WAR. If he can do that you have the sample size you would like to see and can make the offer before going to arbitration. Otherwise they will make a rare arbitration trip looking at a figure from $3-$4 million.