Every spring, we get the March stars who try to earn a roster spot, but hopefully we all know by now that a month or so of at bats is not enough to tell anything.
Half the time, players are facing minor leaguers and the rest are players working on their approach. Any major league team who picks a player based on any statistic over another in March is only setting themselves up to be disappointed.
So far this spring, Josh Reddick has been tearing the cover off the ball with a .400/.429/.700 line in 40 ABs. That sure looks nice and Jeremy Hermedia is matching him with .400/.447/.571 — but does anyone think either is a better option in right field than J.D. Drew who is currently hitting .154/.241/.231?
You might say that comparing them to an established player making $14 million this year is a silly comparison, but why would that be any different than saying Clay Buchholz is not ready to start this year based on 6.2 IP?
That’s not to say we shouldn’t view his start as concerning, but with people already asking Francona if this start has put questions toward Buchholz status, I wonder how often 6.2 IP can change a career.
Some other notes of interest from this spring:
Daniel Bard with seven strikeouts and no walks, Tim Wakefield with only five strikeouts in 13.2 IP, Jonathon Papelbon’s 1.33 K/BB rate, David Ortiz with two homers and a strikeout rate in line with career rates and lastly Mike Cameron with a 16 percent walk rate!
The good news is the Red Sox don’t have many choices to make this spring. The position players are largely set in place unless there is an injury or trade.
That leaves some choice in the rotation with Daisuke Matsuzaka yet to make a start and Buchholz struggles. They also have so many options to fill the bullpen it’s tough to say how that will fill out. We can be sure the Red Sox though, won’t be making choices on just a small sample this spring.