So far this young season Jon Lester has walked six batters in only 10 IP. While an extremely small sample it’s a bit concerning. So far his fastball has been poor according to Fangraphs pitch values with a -2.19 runs per 100 pitches.
One change I see right now is a sinker being classified by Pitch F/x, but that could easily be a slight change from his two-seam fastball.
The one pitch I do see missing is his slider, which was up to 10 percent of his pitches last year. This year though he has yet to throw one according to Pitch F/x.
I’m surprised to see so many changes early on this season by the rotation, but perhaps this is just noise that will level out as the season continues. If it does not I have to wonder where it all is coming from.
John Lackey has switched more to his cutter, Lester has stopped throwing his slider and Josh Beckett looks to have thrown less curve balls in exchange for more change ups.
Is the team making this request of it’s pitchers, perhaps all three pitchers are making large changes in the same year, a noise effect or error in the pitch f/x or perhaps an effect of Victor Martinez catching full time? I don’t know if we can tell this for sure. The only comparison right now is in Jason Varitek’s one game catching for Beckett we still saw Beckett throw 12 percent change ups.
It concerns me to see our best three pitchers making such adjustments all at the same time. This is stuff we try in the spring, but not once the season has started. Over the next two weeks I would look for more information on what pitches are being thrown. I will try to look into pitch selection based on count to see where the change is being made and perhaps why it has not been successful so far.