For the second straight start this year, Jon Lester has looked quite unlike the pitcher we’ve come to rely on over the past two seasons. As Troy pointed out in yesterday’s quick post, Lester’s control has been fairly poor to this point, though his velocity has been essentially what we expected.
It’s concerning, to be sure, but it’s also not very far out of line with what we’ve seen from Lester in the past, and it’s worth taking a look at Lester’s previous Aprils and Mays to get a sense of whether this is a trend or an outlier.
First, though, a quick aside. I was in the stands for Lester’s no-hitter in May of 2008, and what’s interesting about that start is less the run of dominance he began afterward, and more the shakiness he’d experienced before it. At the time, Lester was not an ace — he was a feel-good story of a prospect, coming off cancer and a win in the deciding game of 2007.
So when he began mowing them down the night of May 19, the feeling was more one of a young pitcher finally finding his stride than a pitcher settling into a season.
In April of 2008, Lester posted an opponent’s line of .260/.361/.425 and a K/BB ratio of a mere 0.96; he would finish that season at a much more impressive .256/.320/.368 with a K/BB of 2.30 — over twice as strong as in April. He also began going deeper into games, striking out more batters, and keeping the ball in the park at a better rate.
What’s especially interesting here is that the rest of his components — everything from BABIP to LD/GB/FB percentages — remained the same, with only his walk rate and the actual batting results really experiencing any kind of change.
That particular trend repeated itself in even more dramatic fashion in 2009. Lester’s April and May lines last season were atrocious — .305/.362/.492 and .287/.352/.455 respectively. His walk rate was not as bad as in 2008, but certainly worse than what one would expect from him. And, again, his components showed no real difference.
What does all this mean? A couple things: first, Lester is showing a definite trend toward slow starts. In each of his full seasons since returning from cancer, his first one-plus months have been tuneups, especially when it comes to control. When batters hit his stuff, they’re not doing anything different with it, overall; however the control issues (including, presumably, some wildness within the strike zone, leading to better batting lines) show major improvement between April and June.
Second, when he turns it on, he REALLY turns it on — whatever kinks he needs to work out vanish in mid May and he turns into a monster.
I’m not sure whether that’s something that’s correctable — perhaps he can work on new ways to prepare for each upcoming season that will shorten this tune up period. However, it’s always good to set aside any lingering worry — I’m willing to lay odds that by May 20, we’ll start seeing the Lester we’ve come to expect.