Month: April 2010

Fixing J.D. Drew, Darnell Who?, Hermida Behind the Plate?

Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Game 2
What Needs to Happen: JD Drew The bad starts just keep piling up… and keep continuing, causing some real problems in the lineup and some real frustration for the millions of Fenway Faithful. J.D. Drew’s poor April just keeps on coming, which has only added to the ineptitude and futility of the 2010 Boston lineup. Still, while fans may have already begun clamoring for an overhaul, Drew's April has all the earmarkings of a really bad, persistent slump - one that can ridden out with a patient couple weeks. When players go through stretches like Drew has, at his age no less, the primary questions that tend to be asked are 1) is the player hurt? 2) is he seeing the ball well enough or just putting poor swings on the ball? and 3) is he getting old?

That is $39.5 million in wasted talent

Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
After John Lackey's $18.7 million contract, the next three highest paid Sox are J.D. Drew ($14 million), David Ortiz ($13 million) and Mike Lowell ($12.5 million). So far those three hitters have a combined (through Friday) for 22 hits in 121 at-bats with 16 walks and two home runs. That comes out to a baseline average of .181 and a .262 on-base percentage.

On the advanced side of the Hall of Metrics they are averaging a weighted Runs Created plus (wRC+) of 65.666 which is actually a little misleading because Lowell actually has a very decent wRC+ number of 121, albeit in only 20 official at bats this year. The average wRC+ between Ortiz and Drew is 38 (44 for Ortiz, 32 for Drew). Conversely, runs are hard to create when you are not getting on base and the mean between the three players weighted on-base average is .281 again with Lowell skewing the numbers with a .361 wOBA while Ortiz and Drew are at .251 and .233, respectively.

The Small adjustment that meant all the difference for Ryan Kalish

Ryan Kalish at the dishOutfielder Ryan Kalish fell so far below the proverbial Mendoza Line shortly after he was promoted to Portland last season that he was virtually invisible. Kalish began the season at high-A Salem and literally hit his way into a promotion to the Sea Dogs. In 32 games with Salem, Kalish hit .304 with five home runs, 21 RBI, a .434 OBP and seven stolen bases in 10 attempts. But in his first 21 at-bats with Portland, Kalish managed just one hit – repeat, one – which translated into a .048 batting average. “Honestly, it was a total mental adjustment that I had to make,” said Kalish who turned 22 on March 28 but was the youngest player on Portland at the time of his promotion. “When I got there, I wanted to do too much. I was putting pressure on myself and was saying ‘In this at-bat I really, really need to get a hit.’ That’s the hardest way to play the game – by putting pressure on yourself.”

IT CAN’T GET ANY WORSE, RIGHT?

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester falls to the ground after getting hit by a ball off the bat of New York Yankees Melky Cabrera at Yankee Stadium in New York
The Red Sox have played poorly in all facets of the game. As of games through April 22nd, they are ninth in run scored and thirteenth in runs against. Our eyes and the numbers tell us that the Olde Towne Team’s play has been ugly.

Even though most thought the Red Sox offense would suffer (I took a slightly different view), the other side of the ledger would make up for the drop off so professed the optimists of the media and the Nation. Run prevention -- pitching and defense -- was supposed to the strength of the Local Nine. Through April 22nd, the defense has been strong even with Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron missing multiple game. The Sox are second in Ultimate Zone Rating and eighth in Defense Efficiency. Hence, the biggest disappointment has been the pitchers and specifically, the top three starters.

Bigger problems than stolen bases

MLB: APR 15 Red Sox vs Twins
Giving up a stolen base can sure seem like a big deal and when you give up nine of them you would think that is a huge number. It isn't something you want to give up every night, but it's not as big of a problem as our pitching staff's inability to not give up the free pass. A stolen base has an average value of about 0.18 runs. That means every time a runner takes a base he increases his teams chances to score by that amount. That isn't much and when you take into account the potential to lose 0.43 value if you are caught it's a pretty dangerous wager. In the case of the Rangers off of Tim Wakefield though on Tuesday night there wasn't much danger of being caught and only value to gain. It was an easy choice for them and gave them approximately 1.62 runs in value. That is no amount to ignore and is worth slightly more than the average home run, which is worth about 1.4.