Last week, I wrote a realistic but pessimist outlook for the Red Sox. Essentially, my point was that the Rays and Yankees are too good with too big of a lead for the Red Sox to have a better than 50/50 chance to over take either club and make the playoffs.
Even after a four game sweep of the L.A.A. of Anaheim, I still feel the same way. Unlike the General Manager who publicly sees the season as half-full. As Scott Lauber wrote in yesterday’s Boston Herald:
“And, just to prove that he’s looking at the bright side of life, Epstein added this nugget: The Sox went 13-14 in their first 27 games, one-sixth of the season. During his tenure as GM, Epstein said the Sox went 13-14 during one-sixth of the season in each year except 2005.
Point is, he said, one bad 27-game stretch doesn’t mean the season is doomed.”
The season is not “doomed.” The Red Sox are not the Pirates or Royals. But if history repeats itself, then the Rays or Yankees need to fall from their current pace for the Sox to play in October.
Since Major League Baseball went to three Divisions in 1994, the A.L. East has not had three teams end the season with 90 or more wins. If history is going to be our guide, then the Rays or Yankees have to project as a 89 win club for the Red Sox to make the second season. As of yesterday, the Rays would need to play slightly above 500 or 83 win baseball and the Yankees 85 wins for the rest of the year in order to end the season below 90 victories.
The Red Sox dug themselves into a shallow hole in April similar to the Rays‘ start in 2009. And as we know, the Rays were not able to recover from their tough start. The same fate may fall on the 2010 Red Sox.