Last week, I wrote…
“It should be about 2011 since the Olde Towne Team got too far behind over the last forty plus games, which has contributed to them having such a small shot at the postseason. Hence, it would be prudent to plan and act, if nothing drastic occurs, for next year at the trading deadline.”
The Red Sox winning five in a row on the road against the N.L. Champs and the A.L. East leading Rays is not “drastic.“ But it close enough for the folks on Yawkey Way to also work on a buying plan for July.
Over the past week, the Olde Towne Team has raised their playoff probability to 35 percent from 20 percent six days ago, as of games played through May 26, 2010. The aforementioned winning streak as well as taking both games from the Twins and splitting with the Yankees contributed to making the Red Sox relevant in the October baseball discussion.
The next fourteen games should continue the theme of the resurgent Red Sox as they play the bottom feeders of the American League. They have a long four game series against the Royals and three with A’s at home. Then, it is on to Fenway South for three games and closing out the stretch with four in Cleveland. If this team is for real, then they will get at least nine wins.
We are then back to inter-league or uneven play. The Red Sox play the Phillies again, the Diamonbacks, and the Dodgers at Fenway. Then, they hit the road to face the Rockies and Giants. The Red Sox five June inter-league opponents have a combined PECOTA playoffs odds percentage of 178 percent. The Rays’ opponents total is 77 percent (the Marlins two series, Braves, Padres, and Diamonbacks) and the Yankees is 140 percent (Astros, Phillies, Mets, Diamonbacks and Dodgers).
The Yankees have an advantage over the Olde Towne Team. But the team that plays in St. Pete benefits more than both of their A.L. East foes. The Rays having the Marlins as their “natural rival” is a clear advantage.
The Red Sox need to continue their winning ways before uneven play begins in mid-June. Their inter-league schedule is not as favorable as the Rays and Yankees and that could be the difference in a tight race for two playoff spots.