Month: June 2010

Finding the key to Lackey

MLB: Red Sox vs Tigers MAY 16
I've struggled this season to answer why John Lackey has been so off from anything we have seen from him previously. His Pitch F/x says he has added more cutters, but is that the only change and is it real? After some research I think I have found more of an answer and perhaps bring us closer to a solution. Let's start from the top with Lackey's career K/BB at 2.62 he stands as a very solid arm, but in 2010 he has a dismal 1.22. That comes from troubles in strikeouts and walks and little evidence in the numbers to point to one problem. I have spent plenty of time on this site trying to figure it out since he could be the hinge for the 2010 season being successful. Finally thanks to the Fangraphs.com splits I think I can get a step closer to identifying the problem. If you look at his K/9, BB/9 and K/BB in his lefty vs righty numbers there is a huge red flag. Against right handed batters this year Lackey has a stellar 3.83 K/BB with great control. Then you look at his lefty match-up and you see an amazingly bad 0.62 K/BB.

Cautious Optimism But Lacking Something

Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox offense is in good shape. The local nine is second in runs scored and OPS. The lineup has been legit even with Jeremy Hermida (649 OPS) and Darnell McDonald (746 OPS) getting 246 of the 1920 Red Sox at-bats or 12.8%. The other seven regulars are collectively performing as expected. When Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury take plate appearances from Hermida and McDonald, the Olde Towne Team should put up more crooked numbers.

On the pitching front, walks have been the issue. The health and return to form from Josh Beckett will reduce the number of free passes. If he replaces Tim Wakefield, the club will benefit even more since his style dictates not giving into hitters.

Fireside Chats #81: Where this would have been a perfect podcast if it weren’t for Jim Joyce

Our provincial podcast was steamrolled by some national news this week as Paul and I discuss the fallout after perfection was stolen from Armando Gallaraga's grasp in Detroit. Will it usher in the era of replay in baseball? We welcome back old friend of the show Joe Haggerty to discuss that very topic and break down the Red Sox chances of backing up their May efforts with another run in June. All that and more on this episode of Fireside Chats.

Poll: Keys to May Success

David Ortiz' May performance may have rendered the previous poll moot. Over 50% of you "saw this coming" for Big Papi, suggesting that the Red Sox stick with him at the DH position come hell or high water. Ortiz' 1.211 OPS in May complete with .363 average, 10 home runs and 27 RBI earned him the American League Player of the Month award. With that in mind, Ortiz was clearly the main reason the Red Sox turned a sub-.500 April into an 18-11 May right? Not so fast... Jon Lester wasn't to be "out-awarded" by Big Papi as he took home the American League Pitcher of the Month award after a near perfect 5-0, 1.84 ERA month of May. At the same time, others played important roles in the Red Sox May success. So who's performance was most critical to the Sox turnaround? We'll leave that to you to answer in this week's poll.

Epstein’s Draft Hits… and Misses

With the 2010 Amateur Draft just around the corner (Monday June 7 through Wednesday, June 9), I wanted to spend this week's column looking back at the previous best and worst picks of the Theo Epstein era, an era in which the strength of the minor league system has been both a top priority for the team and an area of almost unparalleled success.

With seven drafts under their belts, this front office has taken the team from a roster of two homegrown regulars (Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon) in 2003 to eight in 2010. Among them are a perennial Cy Young contender, a powerhouse corner infielder, a league champion base stealer, an elite closer, a man with a 100 mile an hour fastball, and an MVP. In addition, there is a new crop of talent maturing in the minors, with some players nearing the point where they will make a Major League contribution. So, not bad for a few years. After the jump, we'll take a look at the best and worst draft picks of the past seven years.

Is Matsuzaka still injured?

Although his skills are not ever going to let him be anything more than a number five pitcher, Daisuke Matsuzaka can still be worth the value of his deal if he can just stay healthy. In 2007 and 2008 he posted WAR over 3.2 and was worth nearly $15 million in free agent dollars those years.