With sixty games left in the 2010 Regular Season, the Boston Red Sox sit five games on the outside of the playoff race and an additional two and a half games out of the division title. According to Coolstandings.com’s playoff odds, the Red Sox playoff chances fall just under twenty percent with the magic number of wins to gain a playoff berth around ninety-seven, the Red Sox would need to go 39-21 — .650 ball — coming home to earn a chance at the post-season.
Thinking back to the torrid end of summer in 2004, the post-Arod and Jason Varitek altercation Sox won forty-three of their last sixty-three games to push a similar record as this team stands now to the ninety-eight win plateau.
Looking forward, specifically with respect to the remaining schedule, can this team replicate the legend-in-the-making 2004 run? Unfortunately, it will be a tough road to hoe.
Of the sixty remaining games, the breakdown of opponent talent level won’t make it easy to reach the magic thirty-nine win number.
Let’s start with the series that the Red Sox have to own. With sixteen remaining games against “bad” teams — Baltimore, Seattle and Cleveland, the Red Sox should be able to grab at least ten and hopefully twelve wins leaving twenty-seven wins left to be found.
The next tier of teams up all have records slightly above the .500 mark — Oakland, Los Angeles, Toronto and Detroit and eighteen games hang in the balance. Can the Red Sox go 12-6 against this group? They will likely need to leaving fifteen wins to be had against the mettle of the league.
Consisting of playoff contenders — Texas, Chicago, New York and Tampa Bay — the remaining twenty-seven games will be a precursor to the post-season. In an effort to hit the ninety-seven win threshold, the Red Sox would need to go a reasonable 15-11.
There is clearly very little margin for error as the season rounds out and for the Red Sox to make the playoffs they will have to do it the old fashioned way — they will have to earn it.