Please welcome Charlie Saponara as the newest writer on Fire Brand. He also pens Fantasy Baseball 365 and contributes to Project Prospect.
On Monday night, John Lackey took the mound looking to continue his stretch of 22.1 effective innings in which he had only allowed four earned runs and posted a 13/3 K/BB ratio.
Going up against a lackluster Cleveland lineup that ranks twelfth in the American League in OPS seemed to be just the ticket. Instead, Lackey struggled through 5 1/3 innings, allowing six earned runs on nine hits while striking out seven and walking five.
2010 has been an up and down season filled with regression in Lackey’s peripheral stats. Now with 140.2 innings in a Boston uniform behind him, Lackey has posted a below average 1.61 K/BB rate which includes what would be his lowest strikeouts per nine since 2002, his rookie season, and the highest walks per nine rate of his career.
Clearly, as we saw last night, Lackey has become a very hittable pitcher. Not that he was ever a big strikeout pitcher — aside from his 2005-2006 seasons — but without at least a league average strikeout rate, he has to be pinpoint accurate with his command, which is not happening on a consistent basis.
Against the Indians Monday night, Lackey was all over the zone. He was unable to locate his fastball consistently and got hurt mostly when he left it out over the plate as shown below (graphs via BrooksBaseball.net)
Lackey's pitch F/X from 8/2/10
Lackey did, however, find success with his slider. He threw his slider 23 times, 18 for strikes (six swinging strikes). That slider has arguably been his best pitch this season.
According to stats from FanGraphs, Lackey’s slider has been worth one run above average this season, while all his other pitches have had negative value (aside from his changeup, which has been worth only 0.2 runs above average). What is interesting about this is that Lackey has used his slider less often this season than he has over the previous three seasons.
In general, sliders and curveballs generate the most swings and misses. By choosing not to use his slider as often, Lackey increases the chances of an opposing batter making contact, especially since his fastball is not overpowering. This has certainly happened so far this season as Lackey’s whiff rate (swing and miss rate) has gone down from an already league average rate (around 20 percent) last season to a well below league average rate of 14.3 percent this season.
Monday night’s performance was disappointing in many aspects. Not only was it a big loss on a night where the Rays beat the Twins, but it was the fact that Lackey struggled to throw strikes against an offensively-challenged team after it seemed like he was progressing through June and July. Granted, Lackey’s xFIP for June and July were both over 4.00, but his command seemed to have been headed in the right direction.
In the grand scheme of things, Lackey has been a valuable asset to the Red Sox this season as he has been worth 2.1 WAR to this point. It’s just not quite the value that is expected to come with an $18 million price tag.
While Lackey’s lack of consistency has been an issue, it is not the biggest reason the Red Sox’s chances of making the playoffs are dwindling. However, on a night where they needed a win against a beatable team, he didn’t come up with a quality performance.
For the Sox to have any chance at October baseball this season, Lackey will have to come up big through his final 10 or so starts. Maybe that means going to his slider more often or maybe the defense needs to step up behind him because his performance relies heavily on the results of balls in play.
Whatever the case, Lackey needs to stay consistent. Something he has yet to do in 2010.