With the Sox 4.5 games back in the Wild Card and 7.0 back in the East…
Sox Sign Carlos Delgado
The Red Sox agreed to a minor league contract with free agent first baseman Carlos Delgado.
Delgado will report to the Pawtucket Red Sox, where it is presumed he will take “one to two weeks” before being Major League ready.
Upon promotion, Delgado is expected to platoon with Mike Lowell for playing time at first base, facing right handed hitters.
The aging slugger last appeared in a Major League game on May 10, 2009, having succumbed to a hip injury that necessitated surgery – ending his season. Until the injury, however, Delgado had been enjoying a resurgent season, batting .298/.393/.521 with four homers in 112 plate appearances.
Owning a .267/.347/.488 overall line and .266/.363/.507 line against righties over the last three seasons, it is uncertain whether Delgado will be able to provide useful production following his hip surgery. At 38, no injury is insignificant, though the signing is a fine attempt at replacing the production lost at first base in light of Kevin Youkilis’ injury.
Is Lester the American League’s Best Pitcher?
For three years, Jon Lester has been among the most productive and most dominating pitchers in the American League. With excellent command, swing-and-miss stuff, and ground ball tendencies, few pitchers can match Lester’s rare mix.
There is little doubt that Lester is among the five or ten best American League starters, but just how good is he? It’s time he was placed side-by-side with the AL’s best!
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
In one of the bigger injustices in the MLB, Felix Hernandez is forced to throw every fifth day for the Seattle Mariners — a sleepy team that falls short of expectations year after year.
But as long as Hernandez stands atop the Seattle rotation, hope springs eternal. Heralded as a future Hall of Famer since he was a teenager, the ace has lived up to that billing and then some — developing into one a perennial Cy Young contender.
And that’s great news for Red Sox fans, since King Felix has perhaps the most similar profile to Lester of any starter in the Major Leagues. In 2010, their underlying indicators have been remarkably similar:
Hernandez Lester
ERA 2.94 3.07
GB% 30.2 29.7
FB Velocity 94.0 93.4
O-Swing 31.4 30.8
Z-Swing 63.1 63.4
O-Contact 60.5 61.4
Z-Contact 88.3 87.3
F-Strike 60.6 60.6
Just one major difference stands out, that of Zone Percentage (Hernandez: 49.7; Lester: 44.1), which explains a good deal of their departure in BB/9 (Hernandez: 2.43; Lester: 3.19), but not K/9 (Hernandez: 7.85; Lester: 9.45).
Hernandez’ regressed rates are quite exceptional and fall right in line with his performance record. Perhaps the only AL pitcher who can be expected to repeat a high-2.00’s or low-3.00’s ERA, Hernandez could very well be the AL’s top pitcher.
Expected K/9: 8.15
Expected BB/9: 2.31
Expected ERA: 3.147
Cliff Lee, Texas Rangers
One of the most talented pitchers in the MLB, Lee also possesses one of the most extreme stat lines in the league.
Perhaps the most interesting characteristic of Lee’s success is just how ordinary his talents, at a glance, seem to be.
Without any of the typical success indicators, such as fastball velocity (91.2 mph, 2010), groundball rate (39.5 percent, 2010), or strikeout rate (7.32 K/9), Lee instead relies on one of the best walk rates the MLB has seen in recent decades, possessing a 0.52 BB/9 rate. With just a little luck, Lee may be able to achieve the hallowed mark of more wins than walks — currently possessing a 10-5 record with just nine walks.
Lee’s walk rate is particularly interesting, as it depends on one overarching skill — the ability to throw in the zone. With a 58.9 Zone Percentage in 2010 (and 56.2 percent career rate), Lee’s ability to control the free pass is second to zone.
If there’s one concern with Lee, it is his spiking fly ball rate. At 41.9 percent, the rate is still within acceptable limits, but he must be sure to keep it from reaching his pre-2008 levels, where it peaked at a dangerous 49.7 percent in ’07 – leading to a 5.48 xFIP.
Expected K/9: 6.46
Expected BB/9: 0.50
Expected ERA: 3.605
Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
Once the heir apparent to Johan Santana’s Twins — and exceeding the master for a brief period in 2006 — Liriano’s career was derailed by an arm injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery in 2007. Missing all of 2007 and most of 2008 as a result, the old Liriano seemed lost for good after the lefty stumbled in 2009 with a 4.55 xFIP and 4.28 BB/9.
2010 has been a different story, however, as the 26 year-old found his form, posting a 3.33 ERA and 2.89 xFIP on the year.
With rediscovered velocity (93.7 mph), a resurgent ground ball rate (53.7 percent), and deceptive stuff (34.4 percent O-Swing), Liriano has reestablished himself as one of the AL’s best — one strikeout at a time.
As his regressed strikeout rates are far lower than his gaudy 9.98 K/9, it will take more than one season to see if he can continued to exceed these rates. In addition, it will be interesting to see how much Major League hitters will eventually adjust to Liriano’s approach — leading to a reduction in his O-Swing rate.
Regardless, there is no doubting that the old Liriano is back — and he will reassume his place as one of the best young pitchers in the game.
Expected ERA: 3.426
Expected K/9: 8.96
Expected BB/9: 2.86
Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
The MLB’s breakout pitcher of 2010, Weaver star has skyrocketed like few others have.
Perhaps what makes Weaver most interesting is his velocity — or lack thereof. With just a 90 mph fastball (89.9 mph to be exact), Weaver does not follow the conventional mold of an overpowering strikeout pitcher. But the numbers don’t lie — his 9.93 K/9 can attest to that.
Weaver’s repertoire has not changed much this season, apart from a slight uptick in his curveball usage at the expense of his changeup. Whatever the change, he should keep it up, as his 78.9 Z-Contact percentage is the best in the league among starters.
Still, he is not without flaw; that one drawback being a staggering 48.2 percent flyball rate. However, when you strike out as many batters as Weaver, you could allow 50 percent line drives and still have success.
Expected ERA: 3.528
Expected K/9: 10.85
Expected BB/9: 3.48
Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
For a second-round high school lefty who never cracked the MLB’s top 100 prospects until 2006, Jon Lester was quite the find for the team’s scouting and player development efforts.
From a young kid who was challenged by a life-threatening illness, all the way to a Cy Young caliber pitcher, his development has been nothing short of remarkable. Improving every year of his career, Lester is turning in his best season yet, registering a 3.07 ERA, 9.45 K/9, and 3.26 xFIP.
Lester’s recipe for success is the type that every development department strives for: swing-and-miss stuff combined with ground ball tendencies and good command. Lester delivers just as well as any other pitcher in the league.
With Josh Beckett turning in season lost to injury, Lester is the club’s de facto ace. With his talent, heading up one of the most storied sports franchises in United States history, it will be an upset if he doesn’t win a Cy Young before his career is over.
Lester benefits from continuing to outperform his expected walk and strikeout rates, but the system is still pessimistic of his strikeout potential. However, should he truly be a 9.5 K/9 pitcher, his expected ERA could drop to 2.92.
With the candidates before him, Lester is a solid second just behind Felix Hernandez — just a shade in front of Liriano and with room to improve.
Expected ERA: 3.33
Expected K/9: 8.10
Expected BB/9: 2.86
Rank:
1) Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
2) Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
3) Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
4) Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
5) Cliff Lee, Texas Rangers