Now that the Red Sox are officially out of the playoffs, we will resume laying out the winter plan. We already discussed the need and what it will probably take to bring back Victor Martinez. The second major part of the off season to-do list is to figure out the corner infield situation.
One number: 333 is the reason not to resign Adrian Beltre to a multi-year contract. Larry Bird plus a “3” is the third baseman’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP). BABIP is volatile. 333 is Beltre’s career high BABIP. The league mean is around 300. Beltre is going to regress to the mean and his career line of 294 over the length of his next contract. He is not going to be as productive with the bat as we remember and should not be re-upped to a long-term contract.
Jed Lowrie could be the answer at the hot corner, but he is insurance for Dustin Pedroia, Macro Scutaro or Kevin Youkilis not being healthy in 2011. Since it is easier to find a first than a third baseman again this winter, the Red Sox should move Youk across the diamond. Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee, and Carlos Pena are free agents. Plus, Prince Fielder and the long sought after Adrian Gonzalez could be available via a trade. The Red Sox have a lot of options to fill first base.