The Adrian Gonzalez trade to the Red Sox and contract extension has not been finalized at the time of this post but it is being reported that Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Raymond Fuentes and a PTBNL are heading to San Diego for the All-Star. Until we have the terms of the new contract and know the PTBNL, an assessment of the deal would be premature but here are some of my thoughts.
* If Gonzalez does not sign a below market extension or below Mark Teixeira’s annual average value of $22.5 million, then he is worth $17 million plus two top 2011 draft picks.
* We will know about a year from now if Prince Fielder and potentially not giving up anything – draft pick compensation could end after this off season – would have been a better course of action than trading for Gonzalez.
* The PTBNL could be dependent on the team friendliness of Gonzalez’s new contract.
* Even though Kelly is young for Portland and 2010 was his first year being a full-time pitcher, he was terrible in the Eastern League. He certainly has enough time, but will need to develop an out pitch to project as more than a mid-to-back of the rotation starter. Kelly is anything but a sure thing.
* Hopefully, Rizzo being dealt to San Diego is another sign (along with 2008-10 drafts) that the Red Sox notion of signing high school first baseman – David Mailman, Lars Anderson – to six figures was a mistake and is over. If a player is already at the end of the defensive spectrum at the prom, then he is going to have to hit like a monster to have an impact in the show in four or so years.
* Fuentes profiles as a good fit for Petco’s spacious outfield. As a player with a good glove, range and a gap-to-gap bat, he would seem to be the prototypical player for the very spacious Padres home field.
The lack of details of the deal make it difficult to comment from an analytical perspective. But as a fan, this is awesome! It is going to be exciting having a lineup with Ellsbury-Pedroia-Gonzalez-Youkilis-Ortiz-Lowrie-Drew and with the right field fence moving a little closer.