BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Although they may be just a 70-win team, the attitude is already better in Baltimore with new manager Buck Showalter.
This off season, the O’s made a pretty shrewd move in acquiring JJ Hardy after the Minnesota Twins non-tendered him. Dan Moroz from Camden Crazies expects something in the range of 2.5-4.0 WAR from Hardy and all it cost the O’s was a couple of relief arms.
The team also added strikeout and home run monster, Mark Reynolds to play third base.
The O’s have offered a three-year deal to Adam LaRoche, but the former Diamondbacks (and short-tenured Red Sox) first baseman is still uncommitted despite having very little interest on the open market. They also are reportedly interested in Derrek Lee.
On the bright side, Baltimore has the previously uber-prospect Matt Weiters, as well as future ace Brian Matusz.
Although Weiters has yet to light Major League Baseball on fire with the bat, he is still a potential game-changer. Orioles’ fans are waiting for him to live up to the hype. Matusz looks like he’s going to be pretty good, but outside of those two — there is not much else that is Major League-ready.
They have a great shortstop prospect named Manny Machado and a few good arms in their system but they still look like the same basement dwellers of the last few years.
Brian Roberts was hurt most of last year and that really affected their offense. Nick Markakis underperformed and Nolan Reimold shuttled back and forth between the minors and Baltimore in a disappointing season. The real bright spot was the power and consistency of DH Luke Scott who mashed 27 home runs in 447 ABs.
December is nearly over and even with the additions of Hardy and Reynolds, it looks like another long season for O’s fans.
Notable Additions: JJ Hardy, Mark Reynolds
Notable Losses: Kevin Millwood, Ty Wiggington
2011 Predicted Record: 72-90
NEW YORK YANKEES
Usually the biggest players in the marquee free agent pool, the Yankees took an unusual backseat to the Red Sox in December. New York is still loaded, but seeing them sit passively on the sidelines while Boston reeled in Carl Crawford, Dan Wheeler, Bobby Jenks and traded for Adrian Gonzalez was definitely different. Has New York lost their mojo?
In 2010, New York won the AL wildcard after racking up 95 wins. The 2011 Yankees offense still looks like one of the best in baseball, but the pitching staff is full of question marks.
New York’s rotation is led by ace CC Sabathia. He is followed by an inconsistent and beatable AJ Burnett. Phil Hughes is a nice 2.5 WAR pitcher but really tailed off after a nice start to the season. His 18 wins are a product of playing for the Bombers and don’t exactly scream #2 pitcher in the AL yet.
After those three, the rotation is a complete question mark. Ivan Nova? Sergio Mitre? Is Andy Pettite coming back? Not sure at this point — but since New York missed out on the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, they may be forced to trade a top prospect (Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances, Manuel Banuelos) for a front-end starter.
As far as the offense is concerned, the Yankees did add a catcher in Russell Martin which will allow Jorge Posada to DH most of the time. They re-signed their captain Derek Jeter and the lineup looks good on paper. The only question marks are around the health of the older guys. Can Alex Rodriguez play 150 games? Can Jeter stabilize and stall the regression? Mark Teixiera was injured in the playoffs but is expected to be healthy by Spring Training. Will he be the same?
Even though the Yanks haven’t added a lot of impact to their roster they haven’t lost much either. Lance Berkman, Kerry Wood, Javier Vazquez and Austin Kearns have all left, but none of them were really much of a loss for New York. You don’t hear anyone in the Bronx complaining.
All in all, the Yankees look like the Red Sox of years past to me with a ton of mashers and one great pitcher. They will probably be very competitive, but as it stands now, they look like a ~90-win team.
Notable Additions: Russell Martin, Pedro Feliciano
Notable Losses: Lance Berkman, Kerry Wood, Javier Vazquez, Austin Kearns
2011 Predicted Record: 91-71
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays come into the 2011 season as the defending AL East champions but will be hard-pressed to even make the playoffs after losing a handful of impact players. Crawford, Rafael Soriano, Carlos Pena, Dan Wheeler and Joaquin Benoit all departed as free agents. Crawford and Wheeler obviously jumped ship for the Red Sox and will face Tampa 19 times this year. The Rays also traded away shortstop Jason Bartlett and will have to rely on young players in 2011.
They still boast an excellent starting rotation as well as one of the best managers in MLB in Joe Maddon. The pitching staff is anchored by David Price and he is followed by a rich and talented crop of pitchers that include Matt Garza, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Neiman and James Shields.
That’s a pretty impressive set of arms right there.
How far will that get them though? They still have stud third baseman Evan Longoria and the enigmatic BJ Upton. But after those two, we are talking about wildcards and young guys. Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez should be good but how long before they are truly impact players? Can Ben Zobrist conjure up his 2009 performance again who is going to close games for the Rays?
A lot of question marks for the division champs. If you want to read more about the Rays, I highly recommend you check out Jason Collette at Dock of the Rays. Best rays writer on the beat.
Notable Additions: Adam Russell, Joel Peralta, Cesar Ramos,
Notable Losses: Rafael Soriano, Dan Wheeler, Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford
2011 Predicted Record: 83-79
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
When you think of Toronto, the first thing that comes to mind is a bunch of mashers and a lineup full of guys who can’t get on base. Fair? Yes, I’d say so considering they hit a Major League-leading 257 home runs in 2010 with an OBP of .312.
The Blue Jays also struggled with pitching ranking 10th in bullpen ERA in the American League and ninth in starters’ ERA – two numbers that will surely improve after Toronto pilfered John Farrell, the Red Sox former pitching coach from Boston.
But the real question is whether or not Toronto can improve from being a middling 85-win type team to the 95 wins needed to make the playoffs in the American League.
If Adam Lind and Aaron Hill can have a ‘normal’ season (or what should be expected of both) then it’s very possible that the Blue Jays could cause some trouble in 2011. No one expects Jose Bautista to repeat his prodigious display of power (54 HR) but could he hit 40 HR? Now that he is a full-time player, he probably can.
The issue though is that with Farrell in control, the Blue Jays’ hitters may not have free reign to mash away as they did under Cito Gaston.
It’s tough to gauge what to expect from Toronto in 2011. They just traded away Shaun Marcum for an offensive prospect in Brett Lawrie and despite struggling from a pitching perspective, still look to have a lot of upside in terms of arms.
The rotation figures to shape up with Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, Carlos Villaneuva (via Milwaukee), Brandon Morrow and young superstar Kyle Drabek. Plenty right there for Farrell to work with. If the offense can be close to the 25 WAR they were last year, this team could throw a wrench into the AL East much like the Rays of years past.
It’s important to note that Toronto lost a lot of decent players including Miguel Olivo, Scott Downs, John Buck and Lyle Overbay. All of this flux and addition makes the Blue Jays both confusing to project and exciting at the same time.
Notable Additions: Manager John Farrell, Brett Lawrie, Carlos Villaneuva,
Notable Losses: Miguel Olivo, Scott Downs, John Buck and Lyle Overbay
2011 Predicted Record: 88-74