MINNESOTA TWINS
First, I would like to congratulate Twins great Bert Blyleven for being elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. That is some good news for the Minnesota Twins. Their offseason news is a lot less positive.
After being knocked out of the playoffs by the Yankees in the ALDS, Twins general manager had a lot of tough decisions to face while his payroll jumped just by virtue of the calendar changing. Joe Mauer’s 2011 salary will be $23 million which is nearly double that of his $12.5 million 2010 salary.
The Twins have seen a small exodus of players that include Orlando Hudson, JJ Hardy (trade), Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Carl Pavano, Jim Thome and Brian Fuentes.
There is a chance that Pavano resigns and I’d imagine that Thome will as well, but how will Minnesota look in 2011? Justin Morneau suffered a terrible concussion that clouds his short-term outlook and if Pavano does not re-sign then Minnesota will have lost three very good relievers and their Ace.
Mauer has had some recent knee issues and reportedly cleaned it up with a minor procedure this offseason but he continues to feel the wear and tear of being a catcher. With him locked up as a $23 million player, you have to wonder how long before the Twins move him from behind the dish.
On the surface, the Twins minor league system looks OK. The most promising and potential superstar is Miguel Sano, an 18 year old shortstop who has power, speed and the makeup that has him being compared to Alex Rodriguez and Hanley Ramirez.
The Twins have seen some attrition this year but will still be good enough to win 88 games, but that may not help them win the Central in 2011.
Notable Additions: Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Notable Losses: Orlando Hudson, JJ Hardy, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Carl Pavano (?)
2011 Predicted Record: 88-74
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
I don’t how anyone under the age of 35 could be a Kansas City Royals fan. It’s too depressing.
The Royals cleared a ton of payroll by trading their ace Zack Greinke to the Milwaukee Brewers. This will allow them to deal head-on with their arbitration-eligible players that include Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Luke Hochevar.
It looks like another year of win totals in the low-60’s for Kansas City. In the Greinke deal, the Royals acquired SS Alcides Escobar who has some nice upside as well a highly-coveted outfielder in Lorenzo Cain.
Outside of that deal, GM Dayton Moore filled his roster with retreads like Melky Cabrera, Jeff Franceour and Joaquin Arias – all streaky players with bad eyes and terrible WAR ratings.
Add Arias’ (-0.5) and Franceour’s (0.5) 2010 WAR together and you get a net zero. Melky’s WAR in 2010 with Atlanta was also negative.
Hochevar will be the Opening Day starter for the Royals in 2011 en route to a 63 win season.
Notable Additions: Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar
Notable Losses: Zack Greinke, David DeJesus
2011 Predicted Record: 63-99
DETROIT TIGERS
The Tigers went into the 2010 offseason looking to make a little noise after coming off of a .500 season. They did so by adding Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit in an attempt to grab the AL Central crown in a year that looks like 90 wins could do it.
Detroit’s pitching staff anchored by Justin Verlander. He is followed by Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Armando Galarraga. The Tigers will need to improve on their 4.30 team ERA (24th in MLB) in 2011 if they want to contend with the Twins and White Sox.
The Tigers offense still has plenty of juice and features the inhuman Miguel Cabrera (6.2 WAR), AL Rookie of the Year candidate Austin Jackson, Magglio Ordonez (if healthy) and the newly-acquired VMart.
Detroit has a slew of arms waiting in the minors including Jacob Turner, Andrew Oliver and Charles Furbush. Any questions marks surrounding the back end of the rotation could be quickly squelched if any of these guys emerge.
Detroit looks like they may make the Central an interesting race if they can stay healthy.
Notable Additions: Joaquin Benoit, Victor Martinez
Notable Losses: Johnny Damon, Gerald Laird, Jeremy Bonderman
2011 Predicted Record: 87-75
CLEVELAND INDIANS
The Cleveland Indians are in re-building mode and figure to languish around the 70-win mark in 2011. Their 2010 season was tough year as they finished 25 games behind the Minnesota Twins.
The biggest bright spot on this team is catcher Carlos Santana, a big-time prospect who was raking at the Major League level until a terrible incident at Fenway Park destroyed his knee and ended his breakout season. Santana was trying to block the plate while Red Sox’ Ryan Kalish was barreling home, looking to score. The collision led to a major knee surgery for the Cleveland catcher,
Santana is expected to be ready for the season and so is Grady Sizemore who also dealt with a major knee surgery. Sizemore, who was once one of the best outfielders in baseball, suddenly disappeared from radars amidst poor play and injury. Having these two healthy and producing will go a long way to making the Indians relevant again.
Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is another very good outfielder on the Indians and his 2010 5.6 WAR puts him in the same discussions as Jayson Werth and Jay Bruce in terms of WAR.
The pitching staff has a lot of question marks. Fausto Carmona took steps to regain his 2007 form but still struggles with runners on base. After Carmona the rotation has Justin Masterson (killed by RHH), Carlos Carrasco, Mitch Talbot and Josh Tomlin.
The Indians pitching staff ranked 25th in MLB in ERA and had the least amount of strikeouts in the American League.
The minor league system does not look great but does have top-ranked pitcher Alex White who may make an impact in the next two years as well as flame thrower Jason Knapp who should be on everyone’s 2011 breakout list.
All in all though it will be another long year in Cleveland.
Notable Additions: Austin Kearns, Adam Everett
Notable Losses: Andy Marte
2011 Predicted Record: 70-92
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota are all going to be just a win or two apart from each other in 2011. This division is really up for grabs at this point. The biggest issue for the White Sox is probably Ozzie Guillen and his penchant for expressing his thoughts unfiltered.
The White Sox added 40 home runs to the heart of their order when they signed Adam Dunn. U.S. Cellular Field is a +17% for LHB home runs. The lineup is leadoff by speedster and perennial 60-SB threat Juan Pierre. Chicago also has the enigma Alex Rios who can hit when he wants to. Carlos Quentin is another power threat who can do a ton of damage if healthy. Paul Konerko looks rejuvenated, Alexei Ramirez came on in 2010 and Gordon Beckham still has the potential to be a middle-infield star.
The rotation is solid with Mark Buehrle who is a 200 inning workhorse and is followed by John Danks, Jake Peavy and Gavin Floyd.
The bullpen probably needs another piece or two after Bobby Jenks defected to the Boston Red Sox and JJ Putz left town, but don’t be surprised if Chicago wins the Central in 2011.
Notable Additions: Adam Dunn, Jess Crain
Notable Losses: Bobby Jenks, JJ Putz
2011 Predicted Record: 88-74