Sort of playing off of what Mike posted yesterday, I thought it would be fun to look at the offensive projections for both the Sox and Yanks to see how they match-up position by position. I’ll be using Bill James’ projections for the 2011 season.
Catcher is the one big weak spot for the 2011 Red Sox. Salty could finally live up to his top prospect billing and out preform Martin and Cerveilli combined, but there is no way to project that at this point. Salty should play better defense that Martin, but Cervelli can certainly hold his own.
Advantage YANKS
These projections were done while Adrian Gonzalez was still a member of the Padres. Now, of course, circumstances are much different. A-Gone will have a stacked lineup around him and a tall green wall in left to pepper with his opposite field power. Though the projections give Teixeira the edge, I think Gonzalez (baring any problems with his shoulder) blows right past his projected line and edges out Tex in production this season.
Advantage SOX
Cano has the edge in power and might edge Pedroia in AVG by a few points, but Pedroia should get on base more, steal more bases and score more runs. Their strengths are a bit different, which makes this one too close to call.
PUSH
The gap in power production doesn’t tell the story here, as Youk should end up with a better AVG and OBP. A-Rod, while perhaps entering the decline phase of his career, should still hit for power and steal double digit bases. At this point in their careers, their defense might be fairly comparable.
PUSH
This projection shows Jeter bouncing back a bit. If he does, he’ll be more productive than Scutaro on the offensive end. Scutaro should be the better defensive shortstop on the year.
Note: I did not include the Jed Lowrie projection, as he and Scutaro are projected for full playing time. Scutaro gets the nod based on recent reports that he will be the starter at short for the Sox in 2011.
Advantage YANKS
Both Crawford and Gardner are burners, capable of 45-plus stolen bases. While Gardner does a better job of drawing walks, Crawford’s overall numbers including home runs, runs and RBI should make him the superior player.
Advantage SOX
Curtis Granderson is going to hit more home runs, but that’s about the only category that he has the edge in (well, RBI’s too). Ellsbury will get on base more, steal a ton more bases and more or less match Grandy in runs scored. Unlike Granderson, Ellsbury doesn’t have nasty splits against left-handed pitching.
Advantage SOX
I give Drew the nod here, though he might end up losing some at bats against left-handed pitching in favor of Mike Cameron. The projections are actually pretty close, but I think Swisher has a better chance of actually reaching his numbers.
Advantage YANKS
Looking at the projections, this one isn’t even close. However, with Posada moving to a full time DH role he may stay more healthy than he has in the past. Then again, he’ll be 40 years old by season’s end, so DHing might not even matter.
Advantage SOX
That brings our tally to…
Sox 4
Yanks 3
Push 2
Looking at the offensive projections and the comparison of the two rotations, there seems to be a clear advantage (especially in the rotation) for the Sox in 2011…on paper, at least.