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Bill James’s total projected stolen bases: 143
My total projected stolen bases: 147
Note: I only used the projected starting lineup with a split at SS (Scutaro/Lowrie) and RF (Drew/Cameron).
In 2010, the Rays led all of baseball with 170 combined stolen bases. The Red Sox ranked 25th with 68 total steals.
The bulk of the projected 2011 totals come from two players in particular: Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury. Last season Crawford stole 47 bases, but had stolen 60 bases the season prior and has stolen 50-plus bags five times in his career. I projected seven more stolen bases than Bill James did (42 to 49), so there isn’t that much of a difference in opinion there. The same goes for Ellsbury, who James projects for 59 steals compared to my 62 projected steals. Ellsbury isn’t being limited this spring and I can’t wait to see him running free when games start.
Right field isn’t quite as quick. J.D. Drew is projected to get the most amount of starts and there is little chance the 35-year-old will suddenly start swiping bags like he did in his younger days. James projects three steals, I project two. However, that number could very well be zero, as last season’s hamstring issues have followed Drew through the offseason and into the spring. That makes for a scenario where Mike Cameron gets most of the playing time in right. It’s hard to figure out exactly what to expect from the 38-year-old Cameron. His 2010 season was mostly wiped away by injures and he only stole seven bases in 149 games in 2009. Cameron’s mere seven steals in 2009 can be somewhat contributed to then Brewers’ manager manager Ken Macha’s red light approach to stealing. Given his age, I don’t see Cameron stealing 20 bases, but if he had to fill in full time for an injured J.D. Drew–and stayed healthy himself–10 to 15 steals wouldn’t be out of the question.
Of course, the scenario in which Ryan Kalish gets a ton of playing time in right field is certainly feasible. I took a look at Bill James’s 43 stolen base projection for Kalish last week.
The corner infield spots won’t produce many stolen bases, but who cares? Adrian Gonzalez is getting paid to hit bombs and pepper the green monster. As for Youk’s speed…well…what a hitter! Both James and I have A-Gone projected at zero steals. As he always does, Youk will sneak in a few stolen bases. James projects five to my four.
Dustin Pedroia is the big question mark when it comes to his projected 2011 stolen base total. He claims that he can go all-out on his surgically repaired foot, but how the grind of a 162 game baseball season will affect him down the road is yet to be seen. James cautiously projects 16 steals; I’m a bit more optimistic. Pedroia had back-to-back 20 steal seasons before last year’s injury. If there is any player that is hungry to prove that he’s back and better than ever, it’s Pedroia. I have him down for 21 thieveries in 2011.
It is yet to be seen how the combination of Scutaro and Lowrie will play out, but neither is a big-time stolen base threat. In his first season as a full time starter, back in 2009, Scutaro stole a career high 14 bags. That number dropped off to five in his first year with the Sox. Injuries played a part, but at age 35 he’s not likely to reach 10-plus steals again, even if healthy. James projects six steals, I project two, but have him down for 177 fewer at-bats due to age and the emerging Lowrie.
Catchers aren’t expected to run and the 2011 duo of V-Tek and Salty is no exception. As for Big Papi…just work on hitting left-handed pitching better.
Some people think that stolen bases are less important than power and OBP. Some people think stolen bases are the key to putting pressure on the opposing pitcher and defense, while getting runners into scoring position. No matter what your belief, one thing is for sure: They are damn fun to watch.
There are few plays in baseball that create the instant excitement of a stolen base attempt. So much has to happen in those few seconds from when the runner breaks toward his target to the safe or out call from the umpire. If nothing else, Sox fans will have much more of that excitement headed their way in 2011.