Will Carroll is known far and wide as the “injury expert” — as his Twitter name suggests — and having read a lot of his work over the last few years, I’d have to say the name fits him rather well.
Carroll has been spot on with his sports injury analysis and how the injuries go on to affect a player in the short and long term. In the past, one would have had to subscribe to Baseball Prospectus to read his insights. Now with Sports Illustrated, Carroll’s “Team Health Reports” are free for all. Here are some of the key points he makes about the 2011 Red Sox (read the article to see the entire list).
Be sure to check out the SI article so you can gain some background on what the ratings mean.
Green Light
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – This rating says nothing about how Salty will fare at the plate in 2011, but it goes to show that behind the dish he should be able to shoulder the bulk of the catching duties. Carroll’s system rarely churns out green lights for catchers, so this is a nice surprise.
Jon Lester – Pitchers and injuries go hand-in-hand, so it’s nice to see that Boston’s ace — and 2011 pre-season Cy Young candidate — comes up green.
Yellow Light
Adrian Gonzalez – Carroll suggests that the shoulder injury might limit A-Gone’s power for a couple months, but his power production should at least hold to his Petco standards given his new ballpark. There is a long-term concern for Carroll when it comes to the shoulder issue, which certainly would have an impact if Gonzalez does indeed sign an extension with the Sox.
Dustin Pedroia – Carroll does not think that last season’s foot injury will be an issue, but he does have some concerns about Pedroia’s long-term value based on his size and athleticism.
Kevin Youkilis – Basically, wrist injuries are not good for hitters, so don’t expect a ton of power from Youk in 2011. Not that Youk was a prodigious home run hitter to begin with.
Clay Buchholz – There is a little concern in the innings jump from last season, but overall Carroll sees no big reason to worry.
RED LIGHT
Jacoby Ellsbury – The fact that Ellsbury took longer than expected to recover from last season’s ailments is the key here. Carroll writes, “Ellsbury was Jay Cutler before Cutler was, proving football doesn’t have the market cornered on uninformed machismo.” So lay off of him would ya?
Daisuke Matsuzaka – Carroll thinks the Sox screwed up here and it’s hard to argue his points. They paid big money to land the Japanese import, then changed the routine that made him great in Japan. Also noted is the fact that Dice-K has thrown a ton of innings in his baseball career from high school and up. Those innings may be catching up to him now.
For the entire list of green, yellow and red players check out the article at SI.com: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/will_carroll/03/01/red-sox-health-report/index.html#ixzz1FZvnqxp4