As I glance over at the reader poll on the right side-bar, I notice that the majority of people (52%) think that Jed Lowrie will be the Sox everyday shortstop by season’s end. However, I wonder if there is a scenario in which Lowrie ends the season not as the Sox starting shortstop, but with another franchise altogether.
Lowrie is a solid ballplayer, but injures have hindered him from putting everything together for a full major league season. Unfortunately for him, the offseason moves made by the Sox over the past two years have created a situation in which he doesn’t have an everyday position with the team. Instead, at least to start the season, he’ll move around as a super-utility guy, giving other players a day off here and there.
Given a lack of opportunity and the emergence of Jose Iglesias as the shortstop of the future, using Lowrie as trade bait might be a viable option, should the need arise in 2011.
The Sox starting rotation is very solid on paper, but only two of the starting five from last season threw over 200 innings (Lackey and Lester) and only one other eclipsed 170 innings (Buchholz). If health factors should once again play a role in diminishing the starting rotation — Dice-K hasn’t thrown over 170 innings since 2007, his first year with the Sox, and Beckett missed significant time last season with back problems — there just aren’t a ton of great backup options to fill in.
Tim Wakefield can eat up some innings, but he hasn’t held an FIP under 4.50 since 2003. There are prospects, but most haven’t pitched beyond single-A. Felix Doubront looks like the best back-up option from the prospect pool as of now, but he has been slowed this spring with elbow tightness. Even if he comes back 100 percent, how much could the Sox really count on from a rookie with only 25 major league innings under his belt, most of which came in the bullpen (not to mention his average-to-below-average walk rates at the double and triple-A levels).
What I am getting at here is that there could be a real need to try and acquire pitching at some point in 2011 and Lowrie is probably the Sox best trade chip.
Trading Lowrie would seem to create a lack of depth in the infield, but another reason why a trade would make sense is Jose Iglesias, who is said to be ready to play gold glove caliber defense in the majors right now.
Iglesias is on schedule to open up the 2012 season as the Red Sox starting shortstop. If the Sox do indeed sign Adrian Gonzalez to a contract extension (as expected), then the team would have first base (A-Gone), second base (Pedey) and third base (Youk) locked up — And, no, I would not endorse moving Youk to the full-time designated hitter role, as his defense is a valuable asset. Again, as is the case this season, where does Lowrie fit into this scenario? He’s not a DH.
This is not an endorsement to look to trade Jed Lowrie, but rather an attempt to look ahead at possible needs that might arise during the 2011 season. Lowrie is a very talented ballplayer that needs to get a shot at playing full time and won’t get that shot with the Sox for seemingly more than a half season (if he takes over for Scutaro at some point). At age 27 in 2010, he is no longer a prospect; he needs to show he can stay healthy and produce.
I know a lot of Sox fans are very high on Lowrie and for good reason, but I also think it’s a bit unrealistic to think he’ll ever become a star-level third baseman (should Youk actually move to DH in 2012) or even anything more than just above league-average. If he stays healthy and produces decent numbers in 2011, his trade value should be extremely high.
Red Sox Nation has their sights set on a World Series title in 2011 and this team is well equipped to make such a run. Sometimes, when a team goes all-in, moves like this have to be made and promising young players are traded away to bring in that last piece to the championship puzzle. Will that scenario present itself in 2011? We’ll just have to wait and see.