Over at ESPN on Wednesday, I wrote an article titled “Could the Phillies Season be derailed?” For those of you who didn’t read it, I discussed three potential issues that could cause the Phillies to fall short of the lofty expectations that have been set for them this season. I thought it’d be an interesting idea to follow up that article with one on the Red Sox.
When the Red Sox signed Carl Crawford to a seven year $142M contract, and acquired Adrian Gonzalez in a trade from the Padres, the front office managed to shift the delicate balance of power in the AL East back in their favor. For many people in and around the game of baseball, the Red Sox became the prohibitive favorite to win not only the division, but also the American League pennant. With a powerful lineup, deep starting pitching, potent bullpen, and strong defense, it’s easy to understand the level of optimism surrounding the team. Just as I discussed with regards to Philly the other day, the thought of beating the Red Sox over the course of a season is daunting, but the idea of taking them down in a five or seven game playoff series in October seems nearly impossible.
Like every other team in baseball, the Red Sox are not without their share of questions. While everything looks great at first glance, it’s important to remember that championships are won on the field—not on paper. At the start of the 2010 season, the team looked poised to make a serious run at the playoffs. Despite surprising performances by Adrian Beltre and Clay Buchholz, the Red Sox eventually fell victim to a series of unfortunate injuries and unexpected poor performances by key players. What pitfalls could await the Red Sox this season? I thought I’d take a look at three of those questions today.
Will Adrian Gonzalez feel the effects of shoulder surgery?
As we all know, Gonzalez had surgery to repair his injured shoulder last fall. Based on the early reports from the Red Sox medical staff, Gonzalez appears to have “full range of motion, no tenderness, and excellent strength” in the surgically repaired shoulder. While this is great news, it remains to be seen how the procedure will affect his ability to hit within a “live” game. He’s only recently started taking batting practice, and won’t play in his first Spring Training game until next week at the earliest. While these activities are both incredibly important steps in the rehabilitation process, it’s important to note that as Gonzalez recovered from shoulder surgery, he wasn’t allowed to participate in traditional baseball activities. This means he couldn’t lift weights, take batting practice, or participate in fielding drills. Essentially, he’s a few, if not several, weeks behind where he’d normally be at this point in terms of being ready for the season. As a result, we need to be prepared for the possibility he steps out of the gate slowly; especially in terms of his power numbers. If he does struggle initially, this could have an impact on the team’s ability to score runs. While this will likely be a short-term problem, a Gonzalez slump could result in tighter games and a slightly higher loss total than initially expected. If the incredibly unlikely “worst case scenario” situation were to occur, and a slump lasted the entire season, it’s possible the Sox could be overtaken in the standings by the underdog Yankees. In all likelihood, Gonzalez will turn out to be the great hitter we all know he can be, but still it’s a situation we should monitor closely.
Will the real Josh Beckett please stand up?
To say that Josh Beckett is something of an enigma might be a bit of an overstatement, but I’d certainly accept it as a viable characterization. During his five years in Boston, he’s shown us flashes of not only the dominant ace who carried the Sox to its second World Series championship in four years, but also the frustrating gopher ball specialist who can’t seem to avoid the big inning. When the 2010 season started, much was expected from Beckett. In typical fashion, he started out slowly, which is something we’ve become accustomed to around these parts with regards to the fireballing Texan. Naturally, we assumed he’d turn it around somewhere around May 1st just as he had in years past. That never happened. In fact, he seemed to get worse. The situation reached a head in during a May 7th start at Yankee Stadium in which he imploded in the sixth inning, after cruising through the Yankee lineup for five innings. After an 11 day layoff, Beckett returned to face the Yankees yet again only to leave in the fifth with a balky back. When he returned in mid-July, we hoped to be greeted by a rejuvinated ace. Instead, we were treated to two months of inconsistency, and a winter full of questions.
So what happened?
After reviewing last season’s stats, there’s plenty of reason to believe that Beckett suffered from an immense amount of bad luck. For instance, Beckett posted an abnormally high BABIP of .338 for the season. After reviewing his batted ball statistics and doing a quick calculation, I found that his xBABIP was actually .302. In simpler terms, Beckett gave up 32 more hits than he was expected to give up under typical circumstances. That’s significant. The likely causes for the elevated rate were defense, alignment, and luck. Additionally, Beckett seemed to be plagued by poor luck on the home run front as well, allowing an unusually high 14.2% HR/FB rate. If we were to regress his HR/FB rate to the 10.5% league average, we find that we should have reasonably expected him to give up 15 home runs, rather than the 20 home runs he actually gave up. One thing I should note. During Beckett’s five year tenure in Boston, he’s produced HR/FB rates worse than the league norm in three of those seasons (2006, 2009, and 2010). In 2008, he posted an HR/FB rate in line with the league average. While it’s possible that Beckett may be more susceptible to the long ball than the average pitcher, we should still expect a regression back toward the mean in 2011.
Going forward, the big question on everyone’s mind is, “What should we expect out of Beckett this year?” That’s a very tough question to answer. Going purely off of his performance indicators, I feel comfortable in predicting that he should return to his 2008/2009 form. While this isn’t dominant ace territory, it’s still solid number two starter/tremendous number three starter territory. With Lester as the staff ace, and Buchholz as an ace-in-waiting, that’s really all we need out of Beckett at this point. If he can do that, it should take some pressure off of Lackey and Dice-K who are pretty much back-of-the-rotation guys at this point–with the Red Sox anyway. If not, then the Red Sox could be in for a bumpier than expected ride.
Can Jonathan Papelbon recapture his dominant form?
I’ve often wondered if Papelbon’s recent struggles stemmed from the mechanical experiments the Red Sox coaching staff tried to employ during Spring Training 2009. The intent behind the mechanical adjustments was to ensure his ability to remain healthy over the long-term. Instead, the adjustments disrupted his timing, and caused him to lose the plus-pinpoint control he once employed in his arsenal. Over the past two seasons, Papelbon has had trouble not only avoiding walks (especially in April when his K/BB ratio is significantly worse than the rest of the season), but also locating his fastball and splitter. As a result, he’s allowed more base runners, given up more runs, and blown more saves than he had at any point in the past. Not surprisingly, this is a deadly combination for a closer.
The good news is that Papelbon seems to have rediscovered his old mechanics. As a result, he’s not only throwing easier, but also has a greater feeling for his pitches. While it remains to be seen as to whether this will translate into long-term success over the course of a full season, it certainly is a good sign. It’s no secret that Papelbon will likely be allowed to leave as a free agent at the end of the season, and that closer-in-waiting Daniel Bard will be installed as his ninth inning replacement. That said, the Red Sox are a much better team this year with a healthy and effective Papelbon closing games, with Bard and Bobby Jenks nailing down the high-leverage situations in the seventh and eighth innings. Still, with Papelbon’s recent history of imploding, this situation will be an interesting one to watch. This is especially true if a meltdown occurs in the middle of a pennant race in August and September. Papelbon tends to be outspoken, and it’s possible he could make the clubhouse uncomfortable for everyone if he’s pulled out of the coveted role so close to reaching free agency.
Could the Red Sox season be derailed? That remains to be seen. Luckily, we’ll have 162 games in which we can watch it all unfold. Provided everyone remains healthy and performs to expectation, I don’t see any reason why the Red Sox can’t win the division, the AL pennant, and the World Series.