Jacoby Ellsbury…Power Hitter?

Ever since his days as a prospect, scouts have raved about the raw power Jacoby Ellsbury possessed. Rarely exhibited during game play, Ellsbury typically shows off this attribute during batting practice prior to the game. With young leadoff hitter entering his age-27 season, an age when most players tend to peak, is this the year his raw power finally transitions into game power? Depending on who you talk to, the answer is a resounding yes.

“It took Rickey Henderson six years to top 10 homers in a season, and he finished his career with 297. Johnny Damon didn’t even reach double digits until his fourth season, and he has blasted nearly 200 since.

Closer to home, Carl Crawford managed all of two homers as a rookie. He needed four years to reach 15 in a season, and now he probably will bat third for the Red Sox.

To this list of speedsters-turned-all-around-threats, we soon could be adding another name: Jacoby Ellsbury.

The Red Sox leadoff hitter lost more than the 2010 season to injury. He lost the chance to take the next step from above-average to All-Star. But judging from the way Ellsbury has played this spring, he seems intent on making the leap directly to superstar.”

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that no matter how good they might appear, Spring Training stats are pretty meaningless. With teams maxing out their 40-man roster and carrying a slew of non-roster invitees, major league quality players are frequently playing against greater levels of minor league and replacement level players than they would during the regular season. Furthermore, players tend to be working out kinks in their swing and pitching mechanics during Spring Training; therefore, some players aren’t yet in “game form”. As a result, players who are in “game form” will be in better position to take advantage of those still experimenting. While John Tomase (of the Boston Herald) mentions the misleading nature of spring statistics later in his article, he does so in an off-handed “well sure they’re meaningless, but Ellsbury’s been so good” sort of way.

As for Jacoby’s potential power, I have to admit that I’m not convinced we’ll see that much improvement in this area. I’m not saying that he couldn’t hit double digits in home runs either this season or some season down the line. In fact, I’d probably say that the odds are likely he not only does it once, but potentially multiple times. That said, I don’t see any big or unexpected developments on the power front in the future.  Johnny Damon, on the other hand, projects Ellsbury’s future a bit differently.

“Damon made that transition with the Royals early in his career, and he believes Ellsbury could one day have 25-homer power. He’s just not sure Fenway Park is the best place for him to do it.

‘Fenway is real tough for left-handed speed guys to produce big numbers, unless you have that pop going the other way,’ Damon said from Rays camp. ‘I can see as his future progresses, he’ll definitely hit more. Right now, I probably see him as a 10 guy. But say one day, if he ends up in the NL Central or something? There’s no doubt I’d see 20 or 25.'”

My problem is that upon reviewing his batted ball rates, I can’t see how he can add too many more long balls to his current performance baseline without a great deal of luck.  Take a look for yourself.  (Obviously, take his 2010 numbers with a grain of salt considering how few plate appearances he accumulated.)

While I don’t doubt that Fenway Park is a difficult place for left-handed speed guys to hit for power, the park (at least at this point) is not Ellsbury’s problem.  His problem is that 50% of his batted balls are hit on the ground.  I don’t care who you are…if you hit that many balls on the ground, you’re going to have trouble putting up power numbers in the 20-25 home run range.  Sure, there are exceptions to the rule.  Joe Mauer, Derek Jeter, and Carl Crawford have all done it (or come close).  Still, even those players have had large swings in their home run totals from year-to-year.  Furthermore, the likelihood of either of those players breaching the 20 home run mark (as Damon predicts for Ellsbury should he play in the NL Central at some point in the future) without a fair amount of luck is pretty poor.  Don’t believe me?  Look no further than Mauer’s 2009 and 2010 seasons.  Despite nearly identical batted ball rates and plate appearances, Mauer’s home run total somehow managed to drop from 28 in 2009 to 9 in 2010.  Clearly, some degree of luck played a factor.

Back to Ellsbury…

In order for his power numbers to see a meaningful long-term increase, Ellsbury would need to either (1) change the plane of his swing to ensure he hits more fly balls, and/or (2) take advantage of the Green Monster in left by mastering the art of hitting the ball in the air to the opposite field.  While it’s certainly possible that Ellsbury works hard enough to achieve either or both of those two things, it would likely take considerable work on his part with a hitting coach in order to change his traditional hitting style.  It’s possible those adjustments could prove to be beneficial.  Then again, it may be detrimental.  It’s tough to say how it’ll affect him as every player is different in that respect.  One thing I can say for sure is that it will be very difficult for Ellsbury to change his hitting style since it’s been ingrained in him for practically his entire life.

Will we see Ellsbury achieve the lofty power numbers predicted by Johnny Damon?  Perhaps.  I can envision a scenario (albeit unlikely) where he achieves that level of success for one season.  As with all types of “out of the norm” performance seasons, those successes are fleeting as regression takes hold the next season.  Players with a batted ball profile similar to Ellsbury’s (read:  ground ball heavy) tend to produce home run totals in the 10-15 range.  While we can dream on a potential 20-25 home run season from our leadoff hitter, reality indicates that our dream will not come true.