Come on. Who else were you expecting for us to pick to finish last in the American League East? Once a proud franchise, the Baltimore Orioles have fallen on hard times producing thirteen consecutive losing seasons dating back to 1998. While most Oriole fans solely blame their much maligned owner for their team’s place in baseball’s pecking order (and who can honestly blame them), Peter Angelos is only partially at fault. An inept front office, poor scouting, and an almost non-existent international presence have cost the Orioles dearly.
When current team president and well respected baseball insider, Andy McPhail came aboard a few years, the team’s prospects finally started to look up. Through developing a talented stable of young pitching and making shrewd trades for young players on the offensive side of the ball, the Orioles have all of the makings for a future playoff contender. Unfortunately, they play in the powerhouse AL East, which makes contending doubly difficult, although not impossible. While they made several key acquisitions that should improve their on-field performance greatly, it likely will not be enough to get them out of the basement—just yet anyway. As one of my co-writers at IIATMS wrote in his 2011 preview on the Orioles, “Though it’s cold comfort, I’m sure, the Orioles could easily be the best last-place team in baseball, and could probably get closer to the middle of any other division in the game.” True, but at least they’re headed in the right direction. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them ranked higher in 2012.
Statistics code: AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters. W-L, ERA, WHIP for starters. ERA, WHIP, IP for relievers.
Catcher: Matt Weiters (2010 stats: .249/.317/.377);Craig Tatum (2010 stats: .281/.349/.316)
Perhaps, I’m foolish, but I believe in Matt Weiters. Entering his age-25 season, he’s still young enough to right the ship and rediscover his talents. Don’t be surprised if his performance does a 180 this season. Craig Tatum, on the other hand, is a run of the mill backup catcher who won’t provide much value, if any at all.
First Base: Derrek Lee (2010 stats: .260/.347/.428); Jake Fox (2010 stats: .217/.261/.384)
Lee can’t possibly be worse than the Atkins/Wiggington/Hughes/Fox (below) replacement level monster from last season. Even if Lee reproduced his sub-par (for his standards) 2010 season, he’d still represent a three win improvement over last year’s abomination. Based on Lee’s batted ball trends, it appears he was probably a little unlucky last season. While I’m not suggesting any miracles, don’t be surprised if he produces a season that slightly exceeds his Marcel projection (.270/.348/.454). If so, 2.5-3.0 WAR is not out of the question. Jake Fox is your classic quad-A player that should probably be given a roster spot in extreme cases only.
Second Base: Brian Roberts (2010 stats: .278/.354/.391)
After four months of placing low-OBP players that only Dayton Moore could love in the top two spots of the batting order, Roberts returned from the DL to restore sanity (and a solid OBP) to the leadoff spot. Upon his return, the Oriole offense became much more productive. At 33 with a history of recurring back injuries, B-Rob is most likely on the downside of his career. That said, his solid defense, on-base abilities, and doubles power make him a big time asset to the Oriole offense provided he’s healthy. Roberts is the Oriole “x-factor.
Third Base: Mark Reynolds (2010 stats: .198/.320/.433); Josh Bell (2010 stats: .214/.224/.302)
As bad as his .198 batting average appeared, Mark Reynolds managed to out-produce the combo of Miguel Tejada and Josh Bell by nearly 3.0 WAR last season. Yikes! Reynolds is an all-or-nothing hitter with 35 homer and 200+ strikeout potential. Despite decent stolen base numbers, Reynolds is a slightly below average base runner. Defensively, he has slightly below average range with an erratic arm. The 2.5 WAR he produced last season is probably a fair assessment of his true talent level. Josh Bell, the Orioles de facto third baseman of the future, has done little to prove he’s worth of an MLB roster spot. He’s better off soaking up PAs in AAA.
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy (2010 stats: .260/.320/.394); Cesar Izturis (2010 stats: .230/.277/.268)
Last season, the Orioles gave 513 PAs to Cesar Izturis. In return, he rewarded the Orioles with a triple slash line that might make even Neifi Perez blush. This season, enter J.J. Hardy. While Hardy has struggled over the past two seasons, he’s should be a huge improvement over the catastrophic merry-go-round they’ve been trotting out to the position since Tejada was traded to Houston after the 2007 season. Moving from Target Field to Camden Yards should agree with Hardy offensively, as he should see more of his long fly balls leave the yard. Cesar Izturis, while offensively challenged, still wields an above average glove that can play at three infield positions.
Left Field: Luke Scott (2010 stats: .284/.364/.535); Felix Pie (2010 stats: .274/.305/.413)
Luuuuuuke, as they call him in Baltimore, had a spectacular offensive season in 2010, RBI totals aside. He did just about everything the Orioles could’ve asked from him last year: working counts, drawing walks, hitting for power, filling in at first and left respectively, etc. With Vlad Guerrero in the picture, they’re asking the 32 year old Scott to move to LF. It should be an interesting experiment considering obvious fielding limitations. This is probably Scott’s last season in Baltimore, as Felix Pie will likely take over next season. The only reason Pie doesn’t currently have a starting job is because he is an out machine who’s averse to drawing walks. If his walk rate can return to his 2008/2009 levels, he should be a much more productive player. Instead, he’ll serve as the club’s utility outfielder.
Center Field: Adam Jones (2010 stats: .284/.325/.442)
Do you remember what I said about Pie’s walk rate? Ditto about Jones. Jones won’t reach the heights of superstardom once projected for him until he starts drawing more walks—or hits like Robinson Cano. Unfortunately, the likelihood of either happening is slim. Despite Jones’s above average speed, he neither runs the bases, nor defends his position particularly well. Going into his age-26 season, I don’t see too many reasons to expect vast improvement out of Jones despite his immense talent. Still, he should provide solid production out of the CF position.
Right Field: Nick Markakis (2010 stats: .297/.370/.436)
Just a few short years ago, Nick Markakis looked as if he was on the verge of becoming a star. Now? Not so much. Regardless, Markakis is still a talented offensive player with a penchant for drawing walks and hitting doubles. If he can somehow raise his HR/FB ratio to around 11-12% this season, it would go a long way toward restoring his status as one of the game’s top young stars. Before anyone paints me as being anti-Markakis, I would like to go on record as saying that he’s one of my favorite players in the game today.
Designated Hitter: Vladmir Guerrero (2010 stats: .300/.345/.496)
While everyone in Baltimore is thrilled to have Vlad on board, I’m not so sure his presence in the lineup is all that positive. Let’s look at the facts. He’s a poor base runner. He’s a liability in the field. His plate discipline has deteriorated (47% O-Swing rate in 2010) beyond repair. Sure, he produced an attractive triple slash line last year, but most of that was achieved during the first half of the season. After the All-Star break, his line was a pedestrian .278/.322/.426. While I don’t want to make too much out of a 307 PA sample, it should raise a red flag or two considering his age. Vlad should still provide decent production as their DH, but his value will be limited to one or two wins above the replacement level—hardly the value of an impact player.
Starting Pitcher 1: Jeremy Guthrie (2010 stats: 11-14, 3.83, 1.16)
There are a lot of reasons to be bearish on Jeremy Guthrie’s 2011 performance. Last season, he out performed his FIP by 0.61 runs; posted an unusually low .254 BABIP as compared to his xBABIP; hovered around the 5.0 K/9 mark for the second year in a row; and produced one of the game’s highest contract rates (88%). To put it mildly, this is not a recipe for success that I would suggest pitchers to employ. Still, the biggest problem with Guthrie is that he’s woefully miscast as the team’s ace when he has the talent level of a back of the rotation guy. With Guthrie a couple of weeks away from turning 32, it seems unlikely he’ll continue to be a productive pitcher for too much longer.
Starting Pitcher 2: Brian Matusz (2010 stats: 10-12, 4.30, 1.34)
If there’s one member of the young Oriole rotation that has a legitimate chance of fulfilling his ace potential, it’s Brian Matusz. In his first full major league season, Matusz looked pretty strong, especially down the stretch, posting strong strikeout, walk, and FIP rates. While I’m a little concerned with the four point increase in his contact rate (while his whiff rate dropped by 1.7%), a few small adjustments with regards to his pitch selection could reverse this trend. Based on the data from texasleaguers.com, Matusz would likely benefit from throwing his slider (3.6% usage, 21.2% whiff) with greater frequency. If he does, we could see the young lefty makes some big strides this season.
Starting Pitcher 3: Brad Bergesen (2010 stats: 8-12, 4.98, 1.44)
For a guy that’s been hailed as a ground ball pitcher with a tumbling sinker (by Oriole announcers), Brad Bergesen doesn’t induce as many ground balls as you’d expect. While a 50% ground ball rate is certainly healthy, it’s not high enough for pitcher with a K/9 rate under 5.00 to be able to maintain long-term success. With an incredibly high contact rate (88.3%) and a repertoire that lacks a “plus” pitch, Bergesen is a good bet to be removed from the rotation by Memorial Day.
Starting Pitcher 4: Jake Arrieta (2010 stats: 6-6, 4.66, 1.53)
While I’ll fully admit that Jake Arrieta has potential, his 2010 season didn’t exactly inspire optimism for his future. He walks too many guys; can’t strike guys out; and doesn’t induce ground balls at a high enough rate. All together, he looks like the kind of pitcher with the ceiling of a number four or five starting pitcher. Performance wise, I expect him to reproduce his 2010 season, albeit with slightly better walk and strikeout rates.
Starting Pitcher 5: Chris Tillman (2010 stats: 2-5, 5.89, 1.53)
I could have gone with Justin Duchscherer in this spot, but I decided against it because he’s only pitched 28 innings over the past two years. Despite Chris Tillman’s sub-par major league performance thus far, I’m not quite ready to give up on him. At only 22 years old, he still has plenty of time to turn his great stuff and front-of-the-rotation potential into results. Before he can reach that potential, he’ll need to figure out a way to not only induce a few more strikeouts, but also keep more of his fly balls in the ballpark. If fails to make considerable strides in those areas this season, he runs the risk of falling behind Zach Britton on the depth chart.
Relief Pitching: Kevin Gregg (2010 stats: 3.51, 1.39, 59); Koji Uehara (2010 stats: 2.86, 1.25, 44); Michael Gonzalez (2010 stats: 4.01, 1.30, 24.2); Josh Johnson (2010 stats: 3.42, 1.41, 26.1); Jeremy Accardo (2010 stats: 8.10, 1.62, 6.2); Jason Berken (2010 stats: 3.03, 1.33, 62.1); Rick VandenHurk (2010 stats: 5.09, 1.36, 17.2)
Kevin Gregg is regrettably miscast as the closer. While he’s certainly capable of filling the role (and has for three teams over the past few seasons), the Orioles have a better in-house option in Koji Uehara (11:1 K/BB ratio in 2010). Money talks, so Gregg will get the save opportunities, while Uehara will be resigned to the set-up role. Who knows? It may work out for the best for the Orioles. Rather than being married to the ninth inning, the O’s can use Uehara in other crucial, high leverage situations. Additionally, healthy seasons from Gonzalez, Johnson, and Accardo should go a long way towards mitigating some of the deficiencies from last year’s bullpen crew. I wouldn’t expect this bullpen to be among the league’s best, but it should be an improvement over what the O’s toted out to the mound last season.