The New York Yankees made yet another run to the post season in 2010, waving goodbye as the Red Sox were left behind. However, their offseason didn’t exactly go according to plan. Their number one target, Cliff Lee, decided to become a part of the super-rotation in Philadelphia while the Sox were busy adding Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. The Yanks did re-sign two of their core members in Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, but their biggest non-Yankee prize was a relief pitcher in Rafael Soriano.
The 2011 Yankees still have a loaded lineup, but their season may revolve around their questionable starting rotation.
Statistics code: AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters. W-L, ERA, WHIP for starters. ERA, WHIP, IP for relievers.
Catcher: Russell Martin (2010 stats: .248/.347/.332); Francisco Cervelli (2010 stats: .271/.359/.335)
Martin was a player that the Sox looked at this offseason, but he ended up signing with the Yanks. While he still has a knack for getting on base, His power and speed have diminished over the past two seasons, partly due to some injury problems. If he can stay healthy and reach 400 or more plate appearances, he should be a 1.5-2.5 WAR asset. Cervelli, on the other hand, maybe played a little over his head in 2010, hitting close to .300 up until June before falling off sharply the rest of the way. I’d be surprised if he hit .270 again. He also has very little pop in his bat. The duo should combine to produce an above average OBP, but that may be about it.
First Base: Mark Teixeira (2010 stats: .256/.365/.481)
In a down year, Teixeira still hit 33 home runs, drove in 108 runs and scored 113 runs. Based on his .268 BABIP and 19 percent line drive rate (his BABIP against right-handed pitching was .255 with an 18.6 percent line drive rate), Teixeira should see a significant rise in AVG/OBP this season. He’s still one of the game’s elite hitters.
Second Base: Robinson Cano (2010 stats: .319/.381/.534)
It’s fairly obvious that Cano is one heck of a hitter. In 2010 he set career highs in home runs, ISO, OBP and SLG to go along with his first 100 RBI season. The question becomes: Can he do it again?
Cano basically doubled his walk rate from just over four percent in 2008 and 2009 to over eight percent last season. Did Cano change his approach for good, or will that be his career outlier? Last season, Cano also received a career high 14 intentional walks, which was due in part to an injured Alex Rodriguez and a down year from Teixeira, but also a product of his insanely good first half production. If both A-Rod and Tex bounce back, pitchers will be less inclined to pitch around Cano, which would lead to fewer “intentional unintentional walks.” If Cano walks less, his OBP will regress and bring his overall value down just a bit.
Even with a regression, however, Cano is still a superstar (even his defense is getting better).
Third Base: Alex Rodriguez (2010 stats: .270/.341/.506)
Since hitting 54 home runs in 2007, A-Rod has seen a regression in AVG/OBP/SLG each year. His health has been an issue in the past couple of seasons, which has affected the numbers, but he’s also heading into his mid-to-late 30’s. Even with the regression and injuries, A-Rod has still managed 30 or more home runs and 100-plus RBI each season. If he can stay healthy in 2011, he could be in line for another very good, but not great season.
<img style="padding:0;margin:0;border:none;" width="242" height="261" src="http://img.wylio.com/flickr/664/242/2310071515" title="Derek Jeter – photo by: Keith Allison, Source: Flickr, found with Wylio.com” alt=”Derek Jeter” />photo © 2007 Keith Allison | <a style="padding:0;margin:0;color:#aaaaaa; text-decoration:underline;" title="get more information about the photo 'Derek Jeter‘” target=”_blank” href=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/27003603@N00/2310071515″>more info (via: Wylio)
Shortstop: Derek Jeter (2010 stats: .270/.340/.370)
Since taking over as the Yankees starting shortstop, Jeter had never held an AVG below .290. Last season, Jeter’s AVG fell to .270, prompting many to wonder if his decline was in full swing. In 2010, Jeter just didn’t drive the ball with much force, setting a career low SLG and hitting ground balls almost 66 percent of the time.
Chip broke down the question of a Jeter rebound and his conclusion is pretty much where I stand. While Jeter should bounce back a little in 2011, it would be a lot to expect for him to put up anything close to his .314/.385/.452 career averages. Shortstop is a tough position to play and play well into one’s mid-to-late 30’s. Jeter is at that point in his career.
Left Field: Brett Gardner (2010 stats: .277/.383/.379)
Being in the fantasy baseball business, I’ve noticed quite clearly that Brett Gardner is getting a lot of love on draft day. People see .280 with 100 runs and 50-plus steals. I’m not so optimistic. While Gardner is a fantastic defender, he lacks the high-end line drive ability to hit much more than he did in 2010. While his groundball/speed combination makes his .340 BABIP look somewhat reasonable, there is a good chance he regresses on that front in 2011. Another issue is his struggle against left-handed pitching. Gardner only held a 16 percent line drive rate against lefties in 2010 while finishing with a .252 AVG.
Even if Gardner does indeed regress from his 2010 numbers, his speed and defense will still make him a valuable asset.
Center Field: Curtis Granderson (2010 stats: .247/.324/.468)
Big things were expected from Granderson in 2010. Having hit 30 home runs the season before while with Detroit, many figured his swing was perfect for the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium. Granderson still hit for power, but his 24 home runs were a bit of a disappointment. A bigger disappointment was his continued struggle against left-handed pitching (.234 AVG in 2010). However, late last season, Granderson and Yankees’ hitting coach Kevin Long worked on a new stance, which led to a productive end to the regular season and a good performance in the playoffs. Those mechanical changes could play a huge role for Grandy in 2011 and could lead to a much better season.
Right Field: Nick Swisher (2010 stats: .288/.359/.511)
It was interesting to look at the changes in Swisher’s approach last season. Known as a patient walk machine in the past, Swish became much more aggressive in 2010, dropping his walk rate to about nine percent and swinging at more pitches both in and out of the strike-zone than ever before in his pro career. The changes resulted in a career high .288 AVG, but a .335 BABIP (19 percent line drive rate) might be a sign that his AVG is due for some regression in 2011. However, his combination of power and on-base skills should make him a very valuable asset once again.
Designated Hitter: Jorge Posada (2010 stats: .248/.357/.454)
Moving out from behind the plate at age 39 might help Posada stay a bit more healthy, but the question is whether years of catching will finally catch up to his offensive game this season. Don’t be surprised if Posada struggles in adjusting to his new role or simply comes face to face with a sharp decline.
<img style="padding:0;margin:0;border:none;" width="199" height="248" src="http://img.wylio.com/flickr/664/199/3519517559" title="CC Sabathia – photo by: Keith Allison, Source: Flickr, found with Wylio.com” alt=”CC Sabathia” />photo © 2009 Keith Allison | <a style="padding:0;margin:0;color:#aaaaaa; text-decoration:underline;" title="get more information about the photo 'CC Sabathia‘” target=”_blank” href=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/27003603@N00/3519517559″>more info (via: Wylio)
Starting Pitcher #1: CC Sabathia (2010 stats: 21-7, 3.18, 1.19)
For three straight seasons, Sabathia has seen his strikeout rates go down and his walk rates go up. To adjust, Sabathia used a two-seam fastball more often, which resulted in a career high 50.7 percent ground ball rate. While he may not be a strikeout machine anymore, he still has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Starting Pitcher #2: Phil Hughes (2010 stats: 18-8, 4.19, 1.25)
After a great start to the 2010 season, Hughes hit a wall of sorts around June and didn’t get completely back on track the rest of the way. Still, his 2.52 K/BB rate has room to improve even further and if he can do a better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark he could have a breakout season.
Starting Pitcher #3: A.J. Burnett (2010 stats: 10-15, 5.26, 1.51)
Simply put, Burnett’s 2010 season was a disaster. One would have to imagine that things have to get better somehow in 2011 (can they get much worse?). Burnett can still be a solid number three starter…if he wants to be.
Starting Pitcher #4: Ivan Nova (2010 stats: 1-2, 4.50, 1.45)
Nova held his own with the Yanks last season, posting a 4.36 FIP in 42 innings while showing the ability to keep the ball on the ground (51.4 percent ground-ball rate), an ability he showed in the minors as well. Nova is unlikely to be much better than he already is, so what you see is what you get. He certainly has a chance to be an average fourth or fifth starter, but there might be just as much of a chance that the big leagues catch up to him over 150-plus innings.
Starting Pitcher #5: Freddy Garcia (2010 stats: 12-6, 4.64, 1.38)
Garcia has a chance to be an above average fifth starter in 2011 if he can pitch 150-plus innings as he did in 2009. Before last season, it had been three years since Garcia even crossed the 100 innings mark. While his strikeout ability has been diminished, he still stays around the strike-zone and doesn’t allow too many walks. The big concern will be if he can keep the ball in the yard. Last season Garcia allowed 23 home runs in 157 innings.
Relief Pitching: Mariano Rivera (2010 stats: 1.80, 0.83, 60), Rafael Soriano (2010 stats: 1.73, 0.80, 62.1), Joba Chamberlain (2010 stats: 4.40, 1.33, 71.2), David Robinson (2010 stats: 3.82, 1.50, 61.1), Pedro Feliciano (2010 stats: 3.30, 1.53, 62.2), Boone Logan (2.93, 1.35, 40), Bartolo Colon (2010 stats: 4.19, 1.44, 62.1)
The 2011 Yanks pen should be better than the 2010 version. The addition of Rafael Soriano alone helps that cause, but Joba Chamberlain could be the key. Last season, Joba posted a very solid 9.67 K/9 and 2.76 BB/9, but fell victim to a .327 BABIP and low 66.6 percent strand rate. His FIP and xFIP (2.98 and 3.19) are more in line with his strikeout, walk and home runs allowed numbers. The addition of Pedro Feliciano gives them a shut-down LOOGY, whom Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and David Ortiz will likely see with some frequency. Colon, having not made the rotation, has a chance to be a fairly decent long-relief piece to the puzzle.