If allowing seven earned runs would have been an improvement, John Lackeyfailed to improve Wednesday. After three straight quality starts, Lackey has hit a road block and a big one at that. In his last two outings, Lackey has allowed a whopping 17 earned runs on 19 hits with an 2/8 K/BB ratio.
With a 19/18 K/BB rate on the season, Lackey has not shown any type of the consistency that the Sox desperately need. One issue has been a lack of velocity. As we can see from the velocity chart from Fangraphs.com, much like last season, Lackey has struggled to build up his velocity early on.
Last season, Lackey was able to build velocity as the season progressed. He’ll need to do that once again, but the sooner the better.
The other issues has been a complete lack of command early on. Lackey’s location has been consistently up and or out of the strike-zone. BrooksBaseball.net gives us pitch location from his last two starts.
Compare those pitch locations to what was arguably his best outing against the Angels on April 24th.
Given his current K/BB rate, these charts come as no surprise. If there is any ray of hope at this point, it’s that Lackey hit an extremely rough patch last May, where his K/BB rate was 1/1. After that rough patch, Lackey went on to post a 3.86 ERA and 2.67 K/BB rate in June and his command/control remained much improved the rest of the season.
Aside from Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, the Sox starting pitchers have been a source of concern through a month and a half of the 2011 season. Lackey is, of course, a big part of that. The question is: Will he bounce back as he did last season?
I think better days are ahead, but I’m not sure exactly how much better better is.