With the Red Sox having won six straight, I thought I’d take a break from covering the latest news; discussing last night’s game; or trying to make sense of the baffling struggles of Dustin Pedroia and Carl Crawford. (Although Crawford does have a knack for game winning hits, that has more to do with luck than anything else.) Instead, I’ve decided to have a little fun with WAR graphs. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the genius that is the WAR graph, allow me to explain. It’s a graph that charts a player’s WAR. Ok…perhaps that was a little too simple. WAR graphs, a creation of Fangraphs,* is a tool that allows you to compare up to four players at a time using the WAR metric as your basis of comparison. For example, if you wanted to see how Bobby Grich’s career stacked up against Lou Whitaker, Roberto Alomar, and Ryne Sandberg, you could do that. In fact, let’s start with that one just because it’s one of my favorites.
* We’re all going to go dateless! Alright!
The most interesting thing to note about this graph are the similarities between the four players. All four started their careers in either their age-20 or age-21 seasons; sustained stretches of excellence throughout the primes; experienced a significant plateau in value and production around age-34; maintained solid defensive reputations; and accumulated between 60-75 WAR during their career. Of even greater interest is that the two least valuable players (in this sample set), Alomar and Sandberg, breezed into the Hall of Fame relatively easily, while the two most valuable players, Grich and Whitaker, fell off of the ballot after their first year of eligibility for not meeting the minimum 5% threshold.
In a way, it’s understandable. Grich and Whitaker played during an era where batting average was cherished and on-base percentage was widely overlooked. While most everyone could agree that creating an out was bad, they didn’t understand the role drawing walks had on run creation. This misinterpretation on how offense is created had a huge affect on the voting block’s evaluation of both players. Sandberg and Alomar, on the other hand, were flashier; known as the best defensive second basemen of their respective eras; produced offensive statistics that were valued higher by the BBWAA voting population; and fared better in MVP voting with Sandberg winning the award in 1990 and Alomar receiving five top five finishes. As a result, they were viewed much more favorably when they became eligible for the Hall of Fame.
This whole situation is really unfortunate. All four players were incredibly productive, and each deserve a spot in the hallowed halls of Cooperstown. As it stands right now, the only way Grich and Whitaker will get a Hall of Fame plaque is if the notoriously fickle Veterans Committee decides to induct them.
The next WAR graph I thought it’d be fun to explore is Jacoby Ellsbury, Juan Pierre (that’s for you Troy), Michael Bourn, and Denard Span.
When Ellsbury was promoted to the major leagues in 2007, many in the baseball community (and especially Red Sox Nation) treated him like he was the next great superstar. That stuff tends to happen when a hot young prospect in a baseball obsessed market puts up a .353/.394/.509 triple slash line; makes highlight reel catches; and produces the kind of excitement on the base paths that hasn’t been seen since the pre-steroid era. While it’s not clear if he’ll ever reach the superstar levels originally predicted of him, what is clear is that his career (to date) is much closer to being on par with the all speed/no offense Juan Pierre than the multi-talented Carlos Beltran.
Let’s look at it rationally. Like Pierre, Ellsbury gets on base at a league average rate (career OBP – .345); relies primarily on hitting singles and stealing bases to provide offensive value (career SLG – .409); and plays below average outfield defense. He is what he is–a decent player, but nothing special. In fact, through his age-27 season, Ellsbury’s more than 3 WAR behind Pierre’s standing at the same age. Unless he makes a major improvement in one (or preferably all three) of the aforementioned areas, he’s probably doomed to being nothing more than an overrated clone of a player with limited value. Furthermore, Span and Bourn have better plate discipline and excel on the defensive side of the coin, so it’s possible they could pass Ellsbury in terms of value in the very near future.
The final WAR graph (for today) that I wanted to look at is for Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, and Miguel Tejada.
Do you remember those debates 10-15 years ago about which shortstop was going to have the better career: A-Rod, Nomar, Jeter, or Tejada? Well, it turns out that debate was pretty silly right from the beginning. A-Rod far out classed everyone in terms of performance, while Nomar was dead even with Jeter until injuries derailed his promising career. As for Tejada? Well, he was pulling up the rear for quite a while, but finally, he’s caught up with the third place member of the pack (Nomar). It only took him six years to do.
When I think about the big four, I can’t help but wonder how this graph would look injuries hadn’t derailed Nomar’s career, or A-Rod had never been forced to move off of shortstop to kow-tow to a defensively inferior player. I have to imagine, the graph would be much more interesting to view than it is currently.
Well, that’s enough WAR graph fun for today. Since I rather enjoy playing around with them, I’ll probably write a few more “Fun with WAR Graph” articles in the future. If you have a specific player (or group of players) that you’d like me to review via WAR graphs, let me know by leaving a comment in the comment section.