I’m often disappointed in these articles as Cafardo’s only reasoning behind this move is written in two small paragraphs and summed up as:
“Scutaro’s throwing – because of a weakened shoulder that plagued him all of last season – doesn’t inspire confidence, and Jed Lowrie didn’t offer any stability when he started at shortstop.”
While his bat has solidified in Boston as below average his defense in a small sampling has been still solid. If we judge him off one game with a bad throw and one range play we could call him bad defensively, but so far UZR has him at a UZR/150 of 8.1, which would be his best rating while in Boston if he keeps it up.
I understand the limitations of UZR, but so far this season most defensive measurements says Scutaro has been slightly above average. This along with his below average bat has made him an average player with a 1.3 WAR so far and all Red Sox short stops have totaled a 1.6 WAR while at the position.
That’s good and obviously Reyes is totalling a 5.3 WAR so far this season making him a huge upgrade when healthy, but is this the best option for the Red Sox? The offense currently stands as the best in all of baseball. They have the most runs scored making the offense seem an odd choice for adding a new player.
On defense they currently stand at fourth in runs saved above average and with Reyes only having a UZR/150 of 3.2 he might not even be as strong defensively so far in 2011. Being the small sample let’s call the defense even and say Reyes is going to add most of his value on offense. Something the Red Sox already dominate. While you can always score more runs as Sunday nights game showed there is a limit to the return on some stats.
In some research it has been shown that as you add more runs from a certain stat – hitting versus defense vs pitching – in theory the stat becomes less valuable, so if you already total 20 wins above average on offense the next 2-3 WAR may not be as valuable. You may get more value at that stage from defense or pitching. This has a lot in theory why the Red Sox went with defensive options in 2010, but they might have over played that as well.
The Red Sox pitching currently stands at 9th in baseball with 11 WAR, 16th in ERA and 15th in FIP. Their relief pitching has been better than most think with the second best WAR in baseball and 5th in FIP. This leaves the starters who have ranked right in the middle thanks to the losses of Daisuke Matsuzaka and the recent health issues of Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Josh Beckett.
Assuming Lester and Beckett are back to themselves and Lackey can have the second half he did in 2010, which he has already started to do, they need only worry about Buchholz coming back. There has been no time table for that and his spot may be the one they look to fill.
I truly believe pitching is the one spot the Red Sox should look to fill if they make any moves outside of filling depth. This option is also based on the public perception that Buchholz is not due back soon. If internally they have more confidence in Buchholz returning sooner rather than later the team has no pressing needs and could play more of a passive role at the deadline.
I don’t think the Red Sox will make a big move and I also don’t think they will place long term value in another player with such high value in his speed. Injuries to the lower body can quickly sap the value of players like Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes and I doubt they would sign another long term deal with such a player.