With Daisuke Matsuzaka having undergone Tommy John surgery, Jon Lester recovering from a lat strain, and Clay Buchholz seemingly out indefinitely with a lower back injury, it’s pretty safe to say the Red Sox starting rotation is a little thin. While guys like Tim Wakefield, Kyle Weiland, Andrew Miller, and Alfredo Aceves have done a good job holding down the fort, the rotation (as it’s currently constructed) is not one we can expect to adequately perform in October when they’re facing baseball’s elite teams. While Theo Epstein indicated his staff would be focusing on obtaining complimentary position players at the July 31st deadline, Danny Knobler of CBS Sports Eye on Baseball explains that the Sox may be setting their sights a little higher.
“The Rockies still aren’t sure they’ll trade Ubaldo Jimenez. They’re still asking a ton for Ubaldo Jimenez.
But they sure haven’t scared teams away.
The Red Sox are the latest team to inquire, sources said Tuesday. It’s not yet clear how serious that interest is, or how strong a match there would be. The Red Sox have also continued to monitor the Carlos Beltran market.”
In a perfect world, Ubaldo Jimenez would be an ideal trade acquisition. He’s a power pitcher armed with a lively four-seam fastball, wicked slider, and solid change-up. He strikes batters out, coaxes ground balls, and avoids the long ball. His contract situation is even better. It calls for him to be paid $2.8M this season, $4.2M in 2012, and is equipped with club options for 2013 and 2014 at $5.75M and $8M respectively. Like I said, he’s an ideal target in a perfect world.
Unfortunately, we don’t live in a perfect world. Any trade involving Jimenez will come with a significant associated cost. According to SI’s Jon Heyman, the Rockies have told the Yankees they’d like Jesus Montero, Ivan Nova, Dellin Betances, and Manny Banuelos in return. While this is probably just a crazy “let’s see if he bites” starting off proposal, it gives us some insight to the kind of deal the Rockies are expecting. It’s kinda scary. The Red Sox don’t have anything even remotely resembling that kind of package in their farm system–and no, a Josh Reddick/Ryan Kalish, Jose Iglesias, Kyle Weiland, and Alex Wilson deal is nowhere near acceptable. Furthermore, they already leveraged their farm system in the Adrian Gonzalez trade. Cleaning out the farm system for a starting pitcher not named Felix Hernandez doesn’t seem like the greatest idea.
With Jimenez’s acquisition unlikely, let’s take a look at a few more reasonable targets the Red Sox may consider leading up to July 31st.
Anibal Sanchez – People forget this, but Sanchez was the other prospect the Red Sox gave up for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. Sanchez has always had the raw talent to be an ace pitcher, but injuries have always managed to get in the way. Well, at least until this season. Despite his slightly above average 3.54 ERA, he’s actually underperformed his FIP (3.27), xFIP (3.12), and SIERA (3.07) indicating he’s better than he’s appeared. Armed with a six pitch repertoire that includes a plus-slider, he’s managed to strike out nearly 25% of the batters he’s faced, while inducing swinging strikes 11.6% of the time. He’s exhibited good command (3.32 K/BB), and produced a batted ball profile that tends to favor ground balls. The primary stumbling block will be the cost of the trade. His salary won’t be an obstacle. He’s due $3.7M this season, and will be eligible for this third and final season of arbitration eligibility in 2012. Instead, the issue will lie in the Marlins expected return. Considering Sanchez’s age (27) and burgeoning ace-hood, the Marlins will be looking to maximize his trade value by asking for the moon. As I mentioned previously, the Red Sox don’t have “the moon” in their farm system. As a result, trade talks won’t likely go very far on Sanchez. The Red Sox could turn their attention to another Marlins starting pitcher, Ricky Nolasco. He’ll be more expensive salary wise, but will likely cost less in terms of prospects.
Derek Lowe – Lowe is an extreme ground ball pitcher who predominately uses a sinker/slider combination to generate weak contact and double plays. At 38, he’s managed to maintain his strikeout numbers (~6 K/9) despite losing some velocity. Though his elevated walk rate is somewhat of a concern, he’s managed to neutralize by allowing fewer than expected home runs. While this isn’t something we can expect to last over the long term, it’s certainly working right now. Lowe is currently in the middle of the third season of the four year $60M contract he signed with Braves prior to the 2009 season. It’s tough to imagine the Braves moving him considering their standings in the National League playoff race, but an outside chance remains in a situation where they net a significant piece to their team. The Red Sox probably can’t fulfill their needs in a conventional two team trade, but it’s possible he could be obtained in a three or four team deal. While he may not be worth $15M per season, he’s still a pretty productive pitcher considering his age.
Hiroki Kuroda – Despite getting little fanfare, Kuroda is one of the more productive middle of the rotation starters in baseball. He doesn’t seem to excel at any one thing, but does everything well. He uses a sinker/slider combination to induce ground balls, and throws a splitter as his strikeout pitch (20% whiff rate). Considering the Dodgers current financial situation, they’ll probably prefer a trade candidate that’s willing to eat the salary remaining on Kuroda’s $12M contract rather than one interested in packaging together prospects. The Red Sox could find this option attractive given he’ll be a three month rental that minimally effects the farm system. Unfortunately,word is that Kuroda isn’t interested in being traded to the east coast. Still, I expect him to be mentioned in trade rumors going forward.
Brett Myers – Myers is a classic innings eating pitcher that will look spectacular one minute and awful the next. Despite a respectable strikeout, walk, and GB/FB profile, his inability to avoid the long ball has consistently plagued him throughout his career. While part of that is due to pitching in homer havens like Citizen’s Bank and Minute Maid Parks, some of the blame falls on Myers. The biggest question I have is, how will he adjust to pitching in the AL East? To be honest, I’m not thrilled with the idea. Though his xFIP and SIERA indicate he’s a better pitcher than he’s shown, I have this weird feeling he’s Jeff Suppan redux. Yeah, he’s an upgrade over Miller, Weiland, etc. on paper, but in reality he seems like a poor fit for the competition. Plus, he’s signed through 2012 with a vesting option for 2013. If he doesn’t work out, he’ll be a long-term risk. Still, I have a feeling the Red Sox will at least do their due diligence on the righty considering the hole in the 2012 rotation left by Dice-K.
Wandy Rodriguez – Given the current state of the Astros (32-65 with a -112 run differential), they’ll likely look to move some of their more valuable trade commodities at the deadline in hopes of initiating a rebuilding process. That includes Rodriguez who they recently signed to a three year $30M extention that includes a $13M option for 2014. Although a long-term, somewhat team friendly contract usually helps build trade value, in this case it may not. At 32, Rodriguez is on the downward slope of his career. While he’s been a productive pitcher over the past four seasons, I’m not sure it’s in the Red Sox’s best interest to absorb such a long-term deal. If we were talking about three months, or even a year and three months, I’d probably be signing a different tune. Still, with the Yankees reportedly interested, it wouldn’t hurt if the Sox got involved if only to drive up the price.
Jeremy Guthrie – Considering Guthrie plays for a division rival, he’s probably a long shot. Like a lot of the guys on this list, he’s another innings eating pitcher that terrifies nearly as often as he delights. Guthrie’s 4-13 record will probably scare some people, but much of that is due to poor run support. His 4.35 ERA is a touch higher than his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, so it’s likely he’s pitched a little bit better than his primary stats indicate. Guthrie’s biggest problem is the amount of contact he allows, and moving from Baltimore to Boston won’t help him improve that weakness. Still, he’s a solid pitcher who knows the competition. If the Red Sox obtain him, he’d be a nice addition to the back of the rotation.
Edwin Jackson – With John Danks due to return from the disabled list soon, and the other four rotation spots filled, Jackson looks like a likely candidate to be traded. He’s a fastball/slider pitcher that tends to rack up a fair amount of strikeouts while walking a few too many batters for my liking. He has good stuff, typically posts as solid GB/FB ratio, and keeps the ball in the yard. Though he never lived up to his ace potential and tends to be a little consistent, he would be an outstanding option in the back of the Red Sox rotation. While it’s unclear what the White Sox would expect in return, I can’t imagine it would be too much. With Jackson eligible for free agency after the season, he doesn’t carry as much value in a trade as he did at last year’s deadline.
As I mentioned last week, the trade market seems to be pretty shallow this summer with no “must have” talents emerging on the market. While that’s unlikely to change in the next week or so leading up to the deadline, the list of obtainable players typically grows as teams determine whether they’re “buyers” or “sellers.” Still, there’s a lot of mid-level talent available for trade. If the Red Sox are going to make a significant move, they’ll likely have to get creative.