More from Theo Epstein’s interview on WEEI yesterday. This time, he’s talking about extending Jacoby Ellsbury.
“Yeah, I think with all of our young players that we see as core members of our organization that is something we are interested in. We certainly see Jacoby as that. This certainly isn’t the right forum to talk about it as conversations are always between closed doors, but it is not a secret that we have sat down and tried in the past and tried to lock Jacoby up in the past, and we will sit down in the future and try and do it again at the appropriate time. He is somebody that we have believed in as a core, young member in the organization that we look to keep around.
We have certain organizational standards that have to be met, and we have worked hard to keep those standards with Pedroia and Youkilis and Lesters of the world, so we’d love to one day announce that Jacoby will be with this organization for a long time and this is where he should be and we see him as a core guy.”
No, it’s not a secret. The Red Sox have tried, unsuccessfully, to sign two of their top home grown players in Jonathan Papelbon and Jacoby Ellsbury. Papelbon hasn’t signed because he wants to break the bank for closers. While I understand his motivation, there’s something to be said about trading money for a known situation. With a glut of closer type pitchers entering the free agent market after the season, I have my reservations about him being able to maximize his value. According to most reports, he wants 3-4 years at $15M per. He won’t get that, but he should get 3 years at $12M per from someone. Still, not a bad pay day.
Ellsbury, on the other hand, is a Scott Boras client. As we all know, Boras isn’t one to allow his clients to sign team friendly contracts that buyout arbitration and free agent seasons. I don’t blame him for his stance. It’s not only a smart move business wise, but also protects the long-term interests of his clients. While he does make the occasional exception as he did with Carlos Gonzalez and this past offseason, teams have to be willing to cede their bargaining position for negotiations to go anywhere. Boras will compromise, but he’ll compromise in the middle. He’d rather go year-to-year otherwise.
So how much can Ellsbury legitimately demand? I’ve heard whispers of Carl Crawford money, but that’s laughable. (Furthermore, I think that’s more so in reference to the kind of deal they’d seek in free agency.) While Ellsbury has played really well this season, I’m not convinced he’s playing at his true talent level. To date, he’s been worth 5 WAR, and I have him pegged as being a 3.5-4.0 win true talent guy for the remainder of his prime. I’d like to see how he does over the next season and a half before considering a long-term deal worth $20M per year. If Boras and Ellsbury are truly interested in getting a deal done now, they should settle for a 5 year deal (plus options) with a $8-10M average annual salary that’s heavily backloaded. It’s not going to happen, but I don’t think it’d be unfair for either side. Ellsbury is a very good player, but he’s not better than Jon Lester, Kevin Youkilis, or Dustin Pedroia.
What are your thoughts? How much do you think the Red Sox should offer Ellsbury? Leave your comments in the designated area, and discuss!