I’m just following up on Troy’s most recent article that mentioned the rumors surrounding Clay Buchholz‘s lower back. According to Sean McAdam of CSNNE, we have some news, and it’s not good.
“Clay Buchholz is suffering from a stress fracture in his lower back and probably will be unable to pitch for the remainder of the 2011 regular season.”
This is devestating news for a rotation that’s been decimated by injuries this season. With John Lackey underperforming, and the Wakefield/Miller/Weiland/Aceves quartet doing little to calm the jittery nerves of Red Sox Nation, many considered Buchholz to be the savior that would help put the Red Sox over the top. Sadly, that probably won’t happen. Save for an unexpected, unlikely late season comeback by the 26 year old right-hander, we likely won’t see Buchholz back in action until Spring Training 2012. Luckily, his injury won’t require surgery, but will require some extensive rehab.
This news puts greater pressure on Erik Bedard and Lackey to perform down the stretch. Bedard is not without his own lengthy, well documented injury history. As Troy mentioned, he tends to be chilly toward the media, and strives to stay away from the high-pressure spotlight of playing in a big market. To say the very least, it will be interesting to see how he responds to handling the Boston media the first time he performs poorly.
Speaking of pitchers who are chilly toward the media…Though Lackey’s pitched better as of late, I’m not sure I trust him just yet. Since returning from the disabled list on June 5th, he’s produced an outstanding 47/12 K/BB ratio in 58 innings. While those numbers are certainly a reason for optimism, his other peripherals tell a very different story. During that same 58 inning stretch, Lackey’s managed to hit eight batters during that time. If you add those HBP to his walk totals for this 10 start stretch, his K/BB ratio suddenly seems a lot less impressive.
Furthermore, he’s allowed 34% of his batted balls to fall in for hits. (The 2011 league average sits around 29%.) On the surface, it appears he’s been unlucky. To an extent, that’s probably the case. Unfortunately, his 21% line drive rate probably has a little more to do with the number of hits he’s allowed than random statistical variance. Lastly, he’s posted a 0.76 GB/FB ratio that’s made him more susceptible to giving home runs; he’s given up eight home runs since returning from the DL. While his 4.97 ERA over the last ten starts is certainly prettier than the 8.01 mark he put together prior to hitting the DL, he’s still a below average starter that has a lot work remaining ahead of him.
Echoing Troy, it should be pretty interesting to watch Bedard and Lackey battle it out for supremacy as the number three starter. Given Bedard’s ceiling and Lackey’s recent track record, I have to give the nod to the Canadian lefty. Regardless of who wins though, both will play very important roles for the Red Sox down the stretch.