Folks, we are just hours away from the return of the legendary Jed Lowrie.
And if you are not attuned to the immense internet attention that Lowrie drummed up in late April, then I suggest you check out The Legend of Jed Lowrie.
Lowrie, who is on the DL with a left shoulder strain, will finish his rehab assignment with Pawtucket this weekend, and should re-join the Red Sox in Minnesota on Monday. Lowrie has been out of action since June 16.
Had Lowrie not been hurt, I was convinced he was going to be traded at the July 31 deadline.
Offensively, Lowrie is a blend of skills that most teams would salivate for at a middle infield position. He has above-average power and speed and makes decent enough contact to be a good Major League hitter.
But his Achilles’ heel is his defense. Earlier this season, when he was terrorizing opposing pitchers, it was easy to overlook his mishandlings at shortstop. But as his bat cooled off and the errors continued, it was hard to imagine him keeping the job long-term.
One of the great things about the switch-hitting Lowrie is that he can play anywhere in the infield. He’s a super-utility with a potent plate profile. But Lowrie doesn’t want to play that role – he wants to be a starter. That really seemed like the makings of a guy who could be packaged in a deal.
You have to wonder what the Red Sox see him doing for them long-term. Lowrie was on pace for nearly 30 errors in a full-season of games. Can that be your starting shortstop?
Maybe it’s just sample size and Lowrie will profile out as an average fielder. His minor league performance suggests he could, but so far, we have not seen that transfer to the Major League level.
Back in May, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe talked about it with Terry Francona:
Jed Lowrie is one of the best shortstops in the American League. Jed Lowrie is one of the worst shortstops in the American League.
It’s all how you want to look at it.
Through Sunday’s games, Lowrie had the highest batting average (.319) and the fourth-highest OPS (.840) among AL shortstops. He also was fourth with 20 RBIs and 14 extra-base hits.
“Offensively he’s about as good as there is at the position. Gives you a great at-bat,’’ Francona said before the game. “Every at-bat is a professional at-bat. You make a mistake, he’ll get an extra-base hit.’’
But at the same time, Lowrie has the lowest fielding percentage (.943) among AL shortstops, the third-most errors with six, and the third-lowest ultimate zone rating, an advanced statistic that measures range, errors, and the ability to turn double plays.
Francona did not disagree with the notion that Lowrie has room to improve in the field.
“We have a tendency to see our warts,’’ he said. “But sometimes you can get lost in that. He’s a smart player; he’s very reliable. His foot speed is probably, that’s something that’s not the best. But he positions himself very well.’’
Again, that was prior to the bruised shoulder which presumably had an impact on his swing. So what can we expect from Lowrie for the rest of 2011?
The first thing that jumps out to me is the fly ball rate. Lowrie hits over 50% of his batted-balls in the air. That’s fine if you are David Ortiz or Jose Bautista and carry a home run-to-fly ball rate nearly 20 percent. But Lowrie has hit just four percent of his flyballs for homeruns. He’ll need to pepper the living daylights out of the Green Monster if he wants to keep his batting average above .275.
As it stands, Lowrie has a batting average of .270 on a 31 percent hit rate. His xBA is 32 points lower at .238 indicating the huge gap between fortune and reality. As it stands, there are just eight players with at least 200 plate appearances who have a flyball rate over 50%. That list includes Rod Barajas, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano, Jonny Gomes, Lowrie, Matt LaPorta and Chris Young.
How many of those guys are hitting above .250? One, and its Lowrie.
And when you look at that list of names you can pretty much categorize the lot as homerun hitters. Their homerun-to-fly ball rates range from nine percent to 16 percent. Again, Lowrie is at just four percent.
For the remainder of 2011 I believe we will see more of the same from Lowrie. He will hit in bunches and when he’s on a streak, he will be hard to stop. He will make a case to play every day with his bat. But with a healthy and sure-handed Marco Scutaro, it will be harder to find consistent playing time.
When it’s all said and done, Lowrie is a very good player and probably should be starting. But unless he can solidify his defense, he may never be a regular starter for the Red Sox.