If it seems like you’ve heard this before, it’s because you have.
Last season, while in the midst of a bounce-back campaign, David Ortiz became upset that the team wasn’t approaching him about a long-term contract extension. That offseason, Ortiz made it clear that he wanted more than to simply have his $12.5M team option exercised. He wanted multi-year security. Ultimately, however, he realized that it was, under no circumstance, his choice.
$12.5 million…must be a tough pill to swallow, Papi.
In fact, the Sox could have very well walked away, not having to pay any money as a buyout, and Ortiz would have been fighting for a contract against the likes of Vladimir Guerrero, also coming off of a big season, who signed for $4.5M less that Ortiz’s 2011 option.
Ortiz insisted that he would feel more comfortable — and presumably play better — not having to perform on the pressures of a one-year deal. Well, we can shoot that opinion down rather quickly.
Last season, facing a realistic scenario in which his 2011 option would not be exercised, Ortiz hit .270/.370/.529 with 32 home runs. He was coming off of a season in which he hit only .238/.332/.462 with 28 home runs. A season that had many people thinking he was washed up.
This season, with no contract in place for 2012, Ortiz has hit .295/.381/.548 with 22 home runs to-date.
Yeah, I’m not buying the “comfort” argument.
For the past two seasons, 2009 and 2010, Ortiz seemed to be in a decline, even though the power numbers held fairly steady. He had never been one to strikeout too often, but starting in 2009 his strikeout rate rose to above 20 percent for the first time since 2000. His strikeout rate rose again in 2010, this time to 24 percent. These are by no means high strikeout rates for a slugger, but they did represent a trend in the wrong direction for Ortiz.
He had also seemingly lost all of his his ability to hit left-handed pitching; a skill that he has regained this season.
This season, Ortiz seems to be the player of old (er, young). He has lowered his strikeout rate to 13 percent, which is even lower than his career strikeout rate of about 18 percent. If he continues on like he has at the plate, he will end the year with his highest wOBA since 2007 when he hit .332/.445/.621 and posted his career high 6.3 fWAR.
No matter what he does the rest of the way, Ortiz should finish the year with excellent numbers. However, the questions about his age and place in the future of the Red Sox lineup remain in tack.
Ortiz will be 36 years old in 2012 and any multi-year deal would take him to age 37 and above, which would be a risky move no matter how you slice it. Not only does his age become a factor, but the fact that he is essentially a DH-only option limits the overall flexibility of the lineup and defense. If his production hits a sharp decline, the Sox will have nowhere else to put him and could potentially be wasting a space better served for the likes of Kevin Youkilis or others who may need a day off from the field.
The best move for the Sox, in my opinion, would be to try and work out a one-year deal. This, of course, isn’t what Ortiz is looking for, but he knows that if he has another solid season, the Sox will reward him with another sizable contract, probably worth more than he would get on the open market.
Perhaps they could work out a one-year deal with a vesting option for 2013 based on performance. That seems fair. If Ortiz is confident that he will continue to mash next season, he should have no problem with a deal like that.
I know, I know; that’s not really how it works. Players will almost always try to lock down multiple guaranteed years in any contract they sign and Ortiz isn’t just some player looking for a deal. No. He’s a Red Sox legend. After all, the Yankees took care of their legend, giving 37-year-old Derek Jeter a three-year/$51M deal this past offseason. That being said, and in all due respect, David Ortiz is no Derek Jeter. Jeter is a baseball legend and an icon of the game on and off the field. And, no, it’s not just because he is a Yankee. He is a legitimate all-time top 10 shortstop and some would argue top five. Say what you will about his defense; even if you think he is/was below average with the glove, then, at worst, he was/is an offensive minded shortstop that always seemed to come up big on the game’s biggest stages. Ortiz has had his fare share of postseason heroics as well, but when it comes down to it, one player is a shortstop and one was a marginal first baseman and now a designated hitter. One player has racked up 73.7 career fWAR and the other 34.3.
This is not going to be easy, but all players decline, even the legends.
How does the organization do what’s best for the team without insulting a Boston legend? Is there a way to convince David Ortiz that he will be taken care of monetarily, but only if he goes year-to-year?
Baseball is an amazing and youthful game, but at some point, it’s going to break your heart. That holds true for both players and fans.
At some point legends decline and fall, and then they’re gone. Fans get disconnected from their heroes, yet time marches on. Clearly Ortiz is still producing at the plate, but his decline will come sooner or later. The question for Theo Epstein and company will be how to foresee when that time will be and if they can afford, both in dollars and on-field production, to give Ortiz the contract that he wants.