When the Red Sox added Adrian Gonzalez this offseason I made a small disclaimer that his output would be similar to Adrian Beltre in 2010 in terms of WAR. They do it a bit differently, but so far that looks about right. Gonzalez is obviously a better player going forward, but he should put up about a 7 WAR, which Beltre did in 2010.
Something I didn’t take into account when he came to Boston though was how much his home run power might suffer at Fenway Park. It’s obvious watching his swing that he is not a pull hitter and much of his power is to left field. When looking at left handed hitters the splits from PETCO Park to Fenway you should expect his home runs to spike incredibly. There is a 20 percent change in home run park factor for left handers between the two. The problem is his hitting is much more like a right hander where PETCO and Fenway look much more similar. For a “right hander” they are only separated by one percent.
In his 40 home run season in San Diego he only totalled 12 home runs in 79 games at PETCO Park, that looks a lot like his 8 home runs in 64 games at Fenway so far. With the switch to the AL and his power outage in April possibly due to a recovering shoulder it’s impressive he has done as well as this, but might not fulfill those hopes some had for 40+ home runs in Boston for Gonzalez.
Of course to anyone worried about his home run totals I would say your missing the point. He may only reach 30 home runs in 2011, but he has been as good if not better than his 2009 season when he hit 40 home runs and totalled a 6.2 WAR. His value has slipped in home runs, but doubles have been a huge boost. No doubt thanks to the Green Monster which has stolen his home runs.
The one area that might be concerning is his BABIP has been much to high to maintain and his walk rate has fallen to the lowest rate since 2006. It has been better of late, but after walking 13 and 16 percent the last two years it would be good to see his current rate above 10 percent.
There might be a few fantasy fans who have been disappointed with Gonzalez this year, but that can’t be the case for Red Sox fans. He has been everything the team could have wanted offensively and defensively and combined with Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury the best combination of position players in baseball. They have combined for a 23.8 WAR while the rest of the Red Sox position players only have 10.4 .
Being only 29 it’s probable that Gonzalez continues to grow in the power department and fully recovered for sprin training next season could lead to new heights for the slugger. Hittrackeronline.com seems to agree with this as his 2011 total for just enough home runs is only 4, which is 17 percent of his total*. Using this to create an expected home run total he would have 26 home runs right now on track for close to 35 home runs.
*27 percent is the expected rate of Just Enough home runs.
In his most financially friendly season Gonzalez has been worth nearly $20 million more than his pay. While he won’t be that financially beneficial in the future as his extention kicks in I expect we’ll become very familiar with the consistency he brings to the Boston Red Sox for years to come.