Do you remember when everyone was gushing about Jed Lowrie‘s emergence as a legitimate major league star back in April? Of course you do. Although those proclamations were foolishly optimistic, it was tough not to be impressed. After producing a remarkable .393 wOBA in 197 plate appearances late last season, he followed it up with a tremendous .406 mark in 72 PAs to start out the year. While we all knew he couldn’t keep up his torrid pace, most of us figured he’d settle into a Dustin Pedroia-lite type player. That hasn’t happened. Since May 1st, he’s posted an unattractive .274 wOBA in 213 plate appearances, dropping his season long rate to .298 (or 19% below the league average per wRC+). Interestingly enough, even long after Lowrie stopped hitting like an All-Star caliber player, people continued to believe he’d return to his early season form.
Now, the same phenomenon seems to be happening to fan favorite and starting RF Josh Reddick. Last week, friend of the blog Matt Collins who writes for Red Stockings Thoughts had this to say on the Reddick conundrum:
“Now, the same is happening with super-kid Josh Reddick, who came out of the gates in May mashing the ball. Reddick was the talk of the town around Boston starting around mid-May, and going all through the next month or so. His incredible hot streak was coinciding with a slump from the starting right fielder JD Drew, not exactly a fan favorite around these parts. Finally, Francona started going to Reddick more and more, and then Drew got hurt and Reddick didn’t miss a beat. Except, he kind of has.
People still seem to think that Reddick is the same guy he was when he first burst on to the scene this year. Coming into this season, he was never viewed as more than the future fourth outfielder, with the injured Ryan Kalish ranking ahead of him in the team’s farm system. Reddick’s play regressing was something easily predictable (he had a .625 BABIP in May, and a .400 in June), but people still aren’t recognizing it. Consider that since the All-Star break, Reddick is posting a .237/.297/.398 triple slash line. The sample size of this is much larger than that of his hot streak, yet people still revert to their first impression.”
Matt originally published this article on August 24th. In the time since, Reddick’s triple slash line has declined even further to .231/.284/.377 in 141 plate appearances. While that line is still better than the .219/.317/.305 line J.D. Drew‘s produced thus far, it doesn’t exactly give me warm fuzzies about his future.
Appropriately, Matt repeats the familiar warning about judging players based on small sample results. He’s absolutely right. We should’ve taken a step back to recognize what was really going on. In May and June, Reddick was just a player riding hot streak; playing far above his true talent level. Although I think most of us realized he’d return to earth at some point, I think some of us hoped that he’d turned the proverbial corner. That maybe…just maybe…we were watching him evolve into a star. While it’s certainly possible he eventually becomes a star, it seems as if those aspirations were a bit premature.
By the same token, I’d like to extend that same small sample warning to Reddick’s most recent stretch. While he’s received nearly twice the number of plate appearances since the All-Star break as he had prior to it, we shouldn’t assume 141 plate appearances is a large enough sample from which to evaluate his performance. Though his downturn can be partially pinned on regression toward the mean, it’s reasonable to assume some of his struggles are the result of pitchers making adjustments and exploiting his weaknesses. This is a pretty common phenomenon that nearly every hitter experiences within a few months after reaching the majors. Now, it’s up to him to make the adjustment and evolve as a hitter.
It’s still too early to know what kind of player Reddick will end up being. In all likelihood, he’s neither the player we saw prior to the All-Star break, nor the struggling rookie we’ve seen since. Only time will tell if he can be an every day outfielder in the majors. In the meantime, it’s not a bad idea to continue playing him everyday; especially if Drew struggles upon being activated from the disabled list.