There’s been a possible development in the saga that has become the Theo Epstein situation. According to Steve Buckley of the Boston Herald, Epstein is on “the cusp” of bolting the Boston Red Sox for the Chicago Cubs. This from two unnamed baseball sources.
“Two baseball sources have confirmed that Theo Epstein is on the cusp of leaving his job as general manager of the Red Sox to accept a position with the Chicago Cubs that is believed to include powers greater than he has in Boston, with an announcement expected to be made ‘within the next 24 to 48 hours.’
The hangup in the negotiations has been twofold. One of them is that Red Sox ownership was still hoping to have Epstein remain with the team. The other is compensation: If Epstein is to leave Boston, said one source with knowledge of the negotiations, the Red Sox are going to want ‘something real.'”
Despite Theo’s desires and/or intentions, the Red Sox ownership holds all of the cards at this point. He’s under contract for at least one more season, and can’t accept any offers without permission from John Henry and Company. That said, if Epstein truly is ready to leave Boston, it’s hard to imagine management not finding a way to make this happen. There’s no upside to forcing an employee to remain in a position he no longer is interested in holding. Furthermore, if management chose to block the move, Epstein could choose to resign effective immediately if he was so inclined. This would lead not only to the Red Sox receiving no compensation for Epstein, but also likely delay the inevitable Cubs-Theo union by a year.
If the Cubs and Epstein are truly set on forming a union, they’ll need to negotiate adequate compensation to entice the Red Sox management to release their long-time General Manager. The most recent report says they’re looking for “something real” in return. It’s not clear what that means, but it’s likely more than a top prospect in the Cubs weak farm system. Considering the rather secretive nature of the entire process, I don’t have a feel for the type of compensation management might be seeking. Over the past couple of weeks, several options ranging from potentially reasonable (acquiring Starlin Castro) to completely absurd (unloading John Lackey’s contract) have been mentioned as possible forms of compensation for Epstein. While the compensation received in return won’t be nearly as sexy as either of the above named mentioned players, you can be sure management will do its best to acquire something substantial and savvy in return.
As more information becomes available, we’ll continue to update this developing story. Keep checking back with Fire Brand for more details! In the interim, check out Evan’s piece for CBS Eye on Baseball on potential Epstein replacements should he leave for Chicago. My money is on Assistant GM Ben Cherington.
UPDATE: After conversing with Evan Brunell of CBS Eye on Baseball and Marc Normandin of Over the Monster, a couple of names that were discussed as compensation were Sean Marshall, Andrew Cashner, Jeff Samardzija (EWWW!), and Chris Carpenter (no, not that one). Peter Gammons think Bret Jackson would be a good fit. This is all speculation, of course, but I thought I’d share it anyway.