Last Friday, John Henry and Larry Lucchino went on WEEI’s Dennis and Callahan to discuss the Red Sox late season collapse; Terry Francona’s ouster; and of course, the employment status of General Manager Theo Epstein. To those who listened to the broadcast, read the transcript, or caught the highlights via Twitter; most walked away feeling a lot of the comments made were pretty wide open to interpretation. Gerry Callahan, co-host of the show, was one of them. On Tuesday morning, he published a piece in the Boston Herald detailing his opinions of what was said on his show.
John Henry, helpless against my charming personality, revealed a great deal as he sat in the lavish WEEI studio last Friday morning. First and foremost: The soft-talking Red Sox owner said his general manager, Theo Epstein, would “not be around forever,” which most people took to mean Epstein would be escorted to his car by security by the end of the workday.
It didn’t happen quite so abruptly, but everyone seems to think it will happen soon. How could it not after Henry spoke of the “shelf life” of a general manager and the “pressure cooker” that is the city of Boston? You just don’t mention those things if you want to keep a guy in your organization for the next five years. You don’t bring up the shelf life of something unless you believe it’s drawing to an end.
After hearing Henry say Theo would “not be around forever” and that the General Manager’s job has a “shelf life,” my first reaction was that Theo’s days were numbered. While I didn’t get the impression that Henry would fire the former wunkerkind, I did wonder if he was providing a thinly veiled hint at Theo’s mind set. After all, Mr. Henry was privy to several conversations few others had access to having. Then again, I’m only speculating.
While I can clearly understand and respect Callahan’s reasoning behind his opinion, I’m going to take a slightly different angle with this one. Unlike most people in and around the game of baseball, John Henry is an incredibly rational person. He doesn’t deal in emotionality or perception, but instead reality. As a numbers and hard facts guy, he realizes that Epstein (or any other GM he employs) won’t be the Red Sox GM forever. That’s just not how the game works anymore. The job is incredibly high stress and prone to burn out. This is especially true in high visibility markets like Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Los Angeles where expectations are high and ownership is very “hands on.” Sure, there are a few exceptions (i.e. Billy Beane, Brian Cashman) where an incumbent remains in his position beyond the 10 year mark, but the typical shelf life is closer to three to five years. A few take promotions; some make lateral moves to GM positions with other teams; several take demotions with other organizations in hopes of a future promotion; and some leave the game for TV gigs or retirement. Similar trends can be seen among executives in other industries throughout the work force.
Most accomplished professionals are driven to innovate and perform by creating new and exciting challenges for themselves. Through constantly evaluating and revising strategies, best practices, and techniques; they motivate themselves to find solutions to long- and short-term problems that may be hindering the organization’s ability to take the next step forward. Once the incumbent starts having difficulty developing new challenges within his current position, he/she will start to look elsewhere.
This seems to be the case with Epstein. Upon accepting the General Manager position on November 25, 2002, he was tasked with finding a way to turn a long-suffering franchise into a champion. Within two years, he accomplished just that. At that point, he turned his attention to his next goal: finding a way to repeat that success by building the team via his player development system and targeted free agent signings and trade acquisitions. After a year long power struggle with Team President Larry Lucchino in 2005, Theo left the team temporarily only to return to the fold prior to the 2006 season. Upon his return, he was given full control to run the franchise as he chose. After building a second World Series champion in his vision, Epstein’s second goal had been achieved. In the four seasons that followed, the team’s success has been mixed, and Theo’s performance has been called into question. His goal of winning a third championship, once in clear sight, has diminished to the point it’s considered both uncertain and unlikely without significant changes to the team’s structure.
Now, faced with a daunting task of returning the Red Sox franchise to championship glory, Epstein is being offered the opportunity to take on perhaps the biggest challenge in the sport: delivering a championship to a club (the Cubs) that hasn’t tasted the victory champagne in 102 consecutive seasons. It certainly won’t be an easy task, but Epstein’s never been the one to shy away from a difficult challenge. Plus, if he was able to bring the hardware back to the Northside, he’d not only cement his legacy in baseball history, but also become a hero to two once downtrodden franchises. Regardless of Theo’s loyalty to the Red Sox, that’s a tough offer to turn down.
Maybe that’s all Henry was trying to say last week on Dennis and Callahan. Rather than hinting he was considering Epstein’s termination, it’s possible he was expressing both gratitude for and an understanding of Theo’s ambition and desire for career growth. As someone who was once an ambitious 38 year old man, Henry understands that one needs freedom to examine his options and create his own path in life. As a rational person, he’s putting his emotional attachment for Epstein aside for the good of all parties involved. After all, what good is going to the dance with the prettiest girl in school if she’s fantasizing about being there with someone else. If Theo’s ready to leave, management should let him walk. Luckily, they have the more than capable Ben Cherington waiting in the wings.