'Jon Lester' photo (c) 2011, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/There has been a lot of talk about how bad the September pitching was and a lot of blame has been placed on the “fried chicken and beer” theory, but 2011 came down to a lack of pitchers making healthy starts. In September the Red Sox staff had 14.2 innings thrown by Kyle Weiland, 24 innings by an over the hill Tim Wakefield and 20 relief innings from Matt Albers and Andrew Miller. This was in large part due to the injuries the team saw from the rotation as well as in the bullpen as the season rolled along.

Even the starters who pitched well had some of the worst luck all season.  In a batch of awful small sample size data Jon Lester had an ERA of 5.40 and Josh Beckett was at 5.48. That sure builds a strong case for the Chicken and Beer dialogue, but that argument doesn’t work when you look at their xFIP of 3.79 and 2.96 respectively.  Even Matt Albers was respectable at an xFIP of 3.38.

So was September nothing but bad luck for the 2011 Red Sox? Nope. Defense was costly and the offense was down just enough to blow important games.  Remember that FIP and xFIP remove luck AND defense to see what the pitcher deserved with their skill alone. Just looking at Mike Aviles short stay in Boston should leave you shaking your head. In only 38 games in Boston Aviles had a -6.2 UZR at all his positions played. He was only positive at short stop, but cost the team over a run at each outfield position and was atrocious at third base.

All this information is here to remind us that while rumors and speculation on conditioning and locker room shenanigans make great stories and radio, they don’t always mean so much when you look at what happened on the field. The Red Sox need to make some changes and need to address some personnel, but let’s hold off on the fire sale of the team.

Returning Pitchers

Josh Beckett

You do not trade a pitcher coming off a season in which he threw an ERA of 2.89, and even his xFIP of 3.58 was still impressive, unless you can get a future or current #1 or #2 in return. That is unlikely and even making a second deal would require a lot of moving parts. Heading into 2011 you want Josh Beckett to be fighting Jon Lester for that #1 spot.

Jon Lester

2011 was not his best season and after heading into the season with a bit of Cy Young hype it was a bit of a disappointment, but his age suggests he will still continue to improve in his skill. With some better control and a few less walks he will be able to top his 2011 quickly, but still he stands with a ERA of 3.47 and an xFIP of 3.62.

Clay Buchholz

He’s starting to build a case that he can beat his FIP and xFIP with a quality BABIP, but that could still be a fact that the Red Sox defense has ranked fourth in UZR during his time with the Red Sox. His ground ball rates are solid as well, but would love to see him make strides in his control. His health is a major concern going forward, but he was available at the end of the season suggesting he will be healthy to start 2012.

Erik Bedard

Adding another health concern is potentially dangerous, but we can build the bullpen and minors to strengthen the depth. His health will limit his contract prospects and a short term deal might still be his best option. A one year deal for Bedard would be a sure thing for me and fill the #4 spot. He might end up as a #5 based on how they fill the rotation, but even in 129 innings last season he totalled 2.4 WAR.

On the Way Out

Tim Wakefield

Here is your gold watch and a firm handshake, but no one wants to watch you struggle to the meaningless all time Red Sox win total. He is the definition of mediocre and even as a reliever his numbers have started to reach a level that we could easily find a better option.

John Lackey

He maybe a member of the chicken and beer club, but since 2008 he hasn’t been the same regardless. Constant injuries and declining performance are the reason he is headed out. Why would anyone take him though? Surely no one wants a pitcher with an ERA of 6.40, right? OK enough of my questions. His xFIP was at 4.70 he was someone who had the kind of luck that is never seen in the majors.

Think of Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2008, but just reverse it completely and that is what happened to Lackey. The PR for Lackey in 2012 is going to be a mess and the team should use some funds to get him to the NL. His skill should see a bump against NL hitters and a pitchers park will help. I would be willing to pay $5-8 million per season to see him on his way, but more than that would be difficult to take without a top prospect in return.

Additions

Mark Buehrle

Forget the big signings in 2012 after the big 2011 offseason and subsequent failure the team shouldn’t rush to fix fan expectations by signing anyone like C.C. Sabathia if available or C.J. Wilson. Buehrle is 33, but talk about a workhorse who defines the term. He hasn’t started less than 200 innings since his second season in 2001. He might be tough to pry out of Chicago, but he would be my target on the free agent market.

The Rest of the Market

The rest is pretty down this year and includes injury risks like Brandon Webb or Roy Oswalt who could be taken if Bedard walks. Edwin Jackson who has been pretty average, but the walk rate improvement is something I would like to see repeated before trusting him long term. Another interesting choice could be Chris Capuano who had a nice return from Tommy John with a xFIP of 3.67 while suffering the long ball to a 4.55 ERA.

Conclusion

The heart of the rotation would be the same in 2012 for me with Beckett, Lester, Buchholz and Bedard back in Boston. If they add Buehrle the 2012 Red Sox would be much better than at any point last season. I could even say the same with Jackson or Capuano although the risk is higher.

I may be in the minority right now, but the rotation is in need of tinkering and not a full overhaul. I don’t think the front office will react like the media right now and cooler heads will prevail.