The Andrew Miller experiment failed. The Franklin Morales patch-up attempt was OK, but he still walked over four left-handed batters per nine innings and has posted xFIPs of over four against them for the past two seasons. Once again, the Red Sox should be in the market for a left-handed reliever. However, the free agent pool inst exactly deep.
This is where I jump into the time machine and take you back to the ancient time of October 12th, 2010. That’s when I wrote an article right here on Fire Brand, suggesting that that Sox try and buy low on a potential sleeper for their LOOGY role. The article was titled “Cheap Alternatives: (Crazy Idea #1) Dontrelle Willis. I wrote…
“The key here is understanding that Willis is a reliever and no longer a starter. At this point in his career he has proven ineffective in a starting capacity. However, there is a small segment of his statistics that shows he can be effective in a specific role. Specifically, against left-handed hitters.”
Instead, the Reds obtained the services of Willis by signing him to a minor league contract. They did not, however, move him into a bullpen role. The move looked brilliant at first, as Willis tore up triple-A to the tune of eight K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 2.83 ERA — then again, how impressive is that coming from a 29-year-old with over 1000 major league innings under his belt? Still, what looked like a vast improvement in command gave the Reds reason for much optimism. They called Willis to the show in early July and he put up good numbers from the get-go, posting a 3.52 ERA in his first four starts. Then, as predictable as ever, Willis started regressing. His walk rate rose each month as he simply could not locate his pitches to right-handed batters.
Willis faced 60 left-handed hitters and 274 right handed-hitters in 2011. The difference was staggering…
Vs. LHB: 10.6 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 10/1 K/BB, 2.01 xFIP
Vs. RHB: 5.7 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 1.1/1 K/BB, 4.68 xFIP
While going over my free agent primers for The Outside Corner, I ranked Willis as the number one available left-handed reliever, writing…
“Look, he’s not a starter anymore. The sooner teams realize this the better. Despite the fact that Willis has appeared in a relief role only once in his major league career (not counting postseason play), he has posted absolutely dominant numbers against left-handed batters. In 65.2 innings in 2010, Willis posted 12.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 against lefties. He has even better against lefties this past season, posting 10.6 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9, good for a 10/1 K/BB ratio in 75.2 innings.”
Willis has a 10.5 K/9 against left-handed batters for his career. One would think that a move to the pen, specifically to focus on getting lefties out, would actually increase that number.
Andrew Miller actually posted a good 4.2 K/BB rate against lefties last season, but it was the first time he had put up such numbers against lefties in his career. Despite the solid K/BB rate, lefties hit .304 against him with a 30 percent line drive rate. Willis’s numbers against lefties have been far more consistent, aside from the mental breakdown stretch of 2008 through 2009. He’s actually produced a low 16.5 percent line drive rate and very good 51 percent ground ball rate over his career.
Moving Willis into such a role does not come without risk. There is no telling for certain how he would adjust to a bullpen role, having been nothing but a starter his whole life. He may not easily adjust to the daily preparation it takes to be ready to pitch night in and night out or the concentration it takes to be ready physically and mentally at a moment’s notice. However, given the way he just about dominated left-handled lefties over his career, it’s definitely worth a shot.