The name is the first thing that jumps out. Xander Bogaerts. It sounds more like a foreign planet than a nineteen-year old prospect. It’s already easy to hear Remy trying to mumble through his name the first time he steps to the plate at Fenway Park. Of course, the Aruban bred shortstop would be glad to have his name pronounced at all at the major league level, whether it be butchered or delivered with clarity.
Actually pronounced Zander Boe-garts, and signed as an international free agent on August 23, 2009, the shortstop has surprised many with his quick development over the past two years. After spending one year in the Dominican Summer League, where he put up a .314/.396/.423 mark, Bogaerts was promoted to Single A Salem this past year, much sooner than anyone had expected.
Although he only hit .260 in 296 plate appearances this year with the Salem Drive, his display of power was what turned heads. He jacked 16 homers with a .509 SLG percentage, absurd power for someone of his age. Especially considering the fact that he only hit 3 the year before, this power surprised everyone. It’s not only his homers though. Scouts say that he drives the ball with power to all sides of the field, squaring up well with almost everything he makes contact with.
The easy knock against Bogaerts is his eye at the plate. With 25 walks and 71 strikeouts last season (a 0.35 BB/K ratio), it’s clear that Bogaerts still has trouble identifying pitches. His performance against off-speed pitches is especially abysmal, with many scouts reporting that he almost can’t touch a breaking ball. The fact that is K% nearly doubled from last year (13.2% to 24.0%) should be especially concerning, but there are reasons to believe that Bogaerts was at a bit of a disadvantage this past season.
You have to remember that he is only nineteen. He still has years of development before he is anywhere near ready to reach the major league level. It should be expected of a nineteen year old to still have a learning curve ahead of him. While, these strikeout numbers certainly aren’t good, there’s still plenty of time for Bogaerts to develop a key eye at the plate, and if we’ve come to learn anything about Boston’s minor league system, it’s that they do nothing better than hone player’s plate discipline. The fact that he is only nineteen in a league filled with recent college graduates and top high school recruits means that he’s playing a level above his head to begin with. It’s easy for a twenty-three year old to slip a slider by him now, but in a year or two, there’s no reason not to believe that Bogaerts will be blasting that same pitch over the wall in left field.
In terms of defensive ability, Bogaerts projects to be solid. While he has a tendency to rush plays now, it seems to be an issue easy to fix over the next few seasons. Some have even guessed that if he continues to fill out his lanky 6’3 frame then he will move to either third base or a corner outfield position. While we’re on the topic of defense, let’s get to the elephant in the room: Boston’s other top shortstop prospect, Jose Iglesias. Often referred to as the best defender to ever play in the Sox’ minor league system, Iglesias has been hyped as the shortstop of the future for the past few years. At 21 years of age, he’s two years ahead of Bogaerts. Although, at the end of the day, it does not seem unlikely that Bogaerts may eventually overshadow Iglesias. With one year of Marco Scutaro left in the books, Iglesias will most likely get his chance in the 2013 season. If he fails to hit as many predict he will, then the Sox may have no choice but to give Bogaerts an early look. Elite offensive production and average defense is more valuable than non-existent offensive production and elite defense. This is exactly the edge that Bogaerts has, and it would not be surprising to see this advantage come into play a few years down the road.
Another interesting twist to this nineteen year old’s story is the fact that on the same day the Red Sox signed him as an international free agent, they signed his twin brother Jair Bogaerts to a deal as well. A catcher and first baseman, Jair put up a solid season in his second year in the Dominican Summer League, hitting .288 with a .387 OBP and a .404 SLG. He has not progressed nearly as fast as his counterpart, but it will be fascinating to watch the two of them grow through the minor league systems together.
At only nineteen years of age, it is impossible to say for sure that Xander Bogaerts is the real deal. While his plate discipline may improve over the next few years, it’s also possible that he stays the way he is: plus power with a low average and walk total. Although his ISO (isolated power) was through the roof last year, it was only his second year in the game, and there’s still plenty of time for progression or regression either way. The years will pass quickly though, as they always do, and it won’t be long before you read more and more about this promising young man on a daily basis. Ever since Nomar Garciaparra departed, Boston has been unable to find a consistent option at shortstop, and although it may be too early to say, it’s starting to look like they found their answer.