As you may have heard, eleven months ago, the Red Sox traded away a package of four players to the San Diego Padres for all-star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Three of the four players in said package were high-end prospects from Boston’s system. (The other was Eric “player to be named later” Patterson) Here we’ll take a look at how these prospects have done since they were shipped out of the system, and evaluate the overall effect the trade will have on the future of the team.
At the time of the trade, Casey Kelly was perceived by many as the staple of the deal. The best pitcher in Boston’s system, he was selected in the first round of the 2008 amateur draft. He posted a 2.08 ERA in his first year in the minor leagues, striking out 74 in 95 innings. He regressed when promoted to AA Portland the next year, finishing with a 5.31 ERA and a 3-5 record, it would be his last year with Boston. The Padres kept him in AA in his first year in their system. He had a solid season, putting up a 3.98 ERA in 27 starts. It should be a bit concerning to the Padres that his K/9 sank to 6.6, the lowest it has ever been in his minor league career. Kelly still projects to be a front of the rotation starter, with ace potential. At only twenty-two years old, Kelly still has years of development ahead of him before he reaches the big leagues, but when he does he is still on the track to All-star potential. Especially pitching in the gaping caverns of Petco Park, Kelly should thrive in the National League West. While the Sox are certainly short of pitching depth heading into next year, it seems highly unlikely that Kelly would have played any pivotal role on the team in the next year or two. Elite pitching is always in demand though, and Kelly certainly projects to be elite.
Anthony Rizzo, drafted in the sixth round of the 2007 amateur draft, was considered to be the closest to major league ready of the three prospects in the deal. This proved to be true as he promoted to the Padres early this summer after tearing up AAA Tucson. The first baseman did not fare well in the majors, and that’s probably an understatement. He hit .141 in 151 plate appearances, slugging a robust .242. He was of course hitting in Petco Park, not a place that usually lends itself to power, and his .210 BABIP certainly didn’t help things. While his performance in the majors was abysmal, he really did tear up AAA. His .331/.404/.652 line with 26 homers over 413 plate appearances leaves no doubt behind San Diego’s reasoning when they promoted him. Like Kelly, Rizzo is only 22, so to see him putting up numbers like that at AAA at such a young age is really quite incredible. In all likelihood, you’re reading about the Padre’s starting first baseman not only next year, but for years to come. Of course, with the Sox acquiring Gonzalez in the trade, they secured a long term option at first base themselves.
The third, and certainly least discussed, player in the deal is Carlos Beltran’s cousin Reymond Fuentes. The Sox drafted the lanky outfielder in the first round of the 2009 amateur draft. He is known for his defensive prowess in the outfield than his ability with the bat. He has hit for decent average throughout his short minor league career, never batting below .270 in a full season. He has very limited power though, and is more of a line drive hitter. He is very dangerous on the base-paths stealing 42 and 41 bases respectively the past two years. The Padres kept him in Single A this season, and he put up a .275/.342/.369 line. While he seems like a perfectly capable outfielder, his lack of power made him quite expendable to Boston’s system, one that is already flush with outfield depth.
Adrian Gonzalez is Adrian Gonzalez; a guy that is going to consistently compete for MVP of the league, and hopefully a guy that is going to carry Boston to a championship or two in his time with the team. At the end of the day, there’s not much you wouldn’t give up for a player of the caliber. That being said, the Sox gave up three very good players. Three players that will probably all be starting for San Diego within the next few years. Jed Hoyer knew the Sox system, he wasn’t going to let Gonzalez go for middling prospects. Boston seems to have plenty of depth at the corner infield positions with Gonzalez and Youkilis ready to go for at least the next two years, with Will Middlebrooks lurking in the wings. Losing Casey Kelly is the part that really hurts. The Sox have fine pitching depth in the minors, with guys like Anthony Ranaudo and Matt Barnes, but Kelly is almost a surefire ace, and that’s something the Sox may desperately need three or four years from now. Even if the pitching is missing that ace of the future, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who wouldn’t pull the trigger on that trade given the chance to do it again. The chance to watch Adrian Gonzalez drill dents into the monster for the next six years should be comfort enough.