Several name brand starting pitchers have been traded already this offseason and the players involved in the trades tells you everything you need to know about this winter’s starting pitcher trade market.
It sucks.
The Red Sox had been included in the Gio Gonzalez trade rumors, but given what the Nationals gave up to get the young lefty, it seems in retrospect that they really had no chance to land him. The Nats parted ways with a young starter, A.J. Cole, who had a tremendous full season debut, posting a 2.53 FIP, 11 k/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 89 innings at Single-A Hagerstown. He’s an arm sure to be ranked rather high on 2012 prospect lists. The A’s also acquired two pitchers, Brad Peacock and Tom Milone, who may not have much more than middle of the rotation to back-end upside, but should be at least above replacement level, inexpensive starters in the big leagues. They also hauled one of the top catching prospects in baseball, Derek Norris, who has a career minor league OBP of .403 and the power to hit 20-plus bombs annually at the big league level (Check out my Derek Norris scouting report here).
In other words, the A’s got a ton of big league capable talent in exchange for a pitcher coming off of a good, not great, 3.64 FIP season.
Before the Gio trade, another young starter, Mat Latos, changed teams in what was another nice haul for the team that traded him away. The Padres may have dealt their best young starter, but in return they received a strikeout/ground-ball machine with horrible control, Edinson Volquez, but one that should get some home run prevention help in PETCO Park. Like Oakland, they also got one of the best catching prospects in baseball, and probably the better catching prospect, in Yasmani Grandal as well as a first base prospect that swings a very solid bat in Yonder Alonso. As if that weren’t enough, they also received reliever Brad Boxberger, who could emerge as their closer of the future with his high-end strikout rates in the minors.
Even the trade of Trevor Cahill landed the A’s a young starting pitcher that has been a top 50 prospect since joining the professional ranks. In Fact, the pitcher the A’s recieved, Jarrod Parker, has more upside than Cahill. When the Royals acquired Jonathan Sanchez from the Giants, they (smartly) traded a player coming off of a 4.2 WAR season, in Melky Cabrera. Interestingly, I wrote an short article for Fantasy Baseball 365 in November comparing Jonathan Sanchez to Gio Gonzalez.
How does this all tie into the Sox? It means that they really don’t have the prospect depth to pull off a deal for a solid starter. Even more so now that another of the Sox’ trade targets, John Danks, has inked an extension with the White Sox and subsequently been taken off of the trade market.
There’s still Jonathon Niese of the Mets, who’s name has been churned through the rumor mill. Another lefty, Wandy Rodriguez, has been linked to the Sox in the past, but given his consistent performance and the fact that the Astros are looking to rebuild with youth, a deal doesn’t look likely, especially since the Sox and ‘Stros just matched up on a trade not too long ago.
Jair Jurrjens? Let’s just say I think the Braves are being quite cleaver by putting him on the block right about now. No thanks.
The Sox system is a bit thin in the upper levels, so trading those players away would not bode well for 2012 if (and when) the big club needs to call upon the farm for some help due to injuries and what not. Overall, the system looked a bit thin last summer, but their impressive 2011 draft haul definitely adds some real potential to the lower levels. These players are the type of talent that the Sox need to invest in with regard to patience as the big club is strapped with some expensive long-term deals and possibly even more on the horizon (see: Jacoby Ellsbury).
While there still may be some smaller deals in the works, it doesn’t look like the Sox are primed to make a big slash on the trade market right now. Even the rumors surrounding Andrew Bailey were a bid subdued yesterday when Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweeted that the Red Sox weren’t going strongly for Bailey or Gio. There are, however, still some very attractive free agent starting pitchers still out there in Roy Oswalt and Hiroki Kuroda, neither of which would likely cost more than one or two years of commitment.
Even though a lot of players have changed teams this offseason via trade or free agent signing, there is still a long way to go before spring training starts in February. The Sox’ offseason is far from over.