Big market teams have obvious luxuries. They can sign A-level free agents like Carl Crawford and John Lackey (wait…). They can make high profile trades right before the deadline in July, for players like Jason Bay and Victor Martinez. Yet, one of the greatest advantages is one that is rarely talked about: their ability to spend larger amounts of money in the amateur drafts. It’s abilities like this that allowed Boston to draft Anthony Ranaudo, the right-hander from LSU, where they did.
Ranaudo was the 39th overall pick in the 2010 draft, although he was arguably rated as the top pitcher in the class. After leading LSU to a championship in 2009, Ranaudo came in to the 2010 season as a can’t miss prospect, an absolute must see. Unfortunately he was hampered with arm injuries, unable to start pitching until midway through the season, and terribly ineffective when he could, posting an ERA over 7. Although he claims that his arm slot stayed consistent and that his velocity remained the same, scouts become skeptical about Ranaudo’s ability to pitch at the major league level, or if he would recover from the injury at all.
Again, this is where Boston’s pay roll becomes beneficial. When they took him at 39th overall in the draft, they offered him a signing bonus of over two million dollars, a substantial enough amount of money to ensure that he would not return to LSU for another season. Theo Epstein believed that Ranaudo was better than his past season led other scouts to believe, Epstein saw the pitcher that led LSU to a championship just two years earlier, the pitcher who had shown enough stuff to become a front of the rotation starter, a pitcher who would one day supplant Becket and Lester as ace of the staff. It was a calculated risk to be sure, but a risk nonetheless.
One year into his time with Boston, he has yet to display that knockout stuff he featured in his first two years at LSU. He split time between single A Greenville and A+ Salem last year, posting a combined 4.33 ERA with a 9-6 record. His combined 8.3 K/9 was solid, but his 3.3 BB/9 was far too high.
Ranaudo has a very strong frame that still has room to fill out. He has an extremely projectable arm that tops out around 95 MPH. As it stands, his fastball is his strongest pitch. It sits in the mid-90’s, but his ability to control it well makes it a plus pitch. His other strong pitch is his hammer-curveball, which reaches mid to upper-70’s. He has a great feel for the pitch, and is confident in throwing it late in the count when he needs a strike. He is working on improving his changeup, which he has thrown occasionally, but not for much success.
Ranaudo certainly has the makings of an ace in him; he’s displayed it throughout his college career. Whether he can develop these skills at a major league level is yet to be determined. Theo Epstein obviously knew of what Ranaudo was capable of, and he spent the money on him knowing the risk. Despite the arm injury, despite the high ERA, Epstein saw the talent within Ranaudo, and took the plunge, hoping that ace-potential would become more than just potential.
Heading into next year, even with the pitching staff seemingly as thin as it is, I would not expect to see Ranaudo at the major league level. Boston is taking their time with him, and they will be careful not to damage his psyche or his delivery by promoting him too early. Don’t expect him to get the Kyle Weiland treatment of being promoted mid-July when they need a spot-start; Ranaudo is worth more to the organization than that. As it stands, he projects as a second or third starter in the rotation, but if everything goes according to plan he could be much more. And it’s that upside that will lead Boston to treat him carefully. Sure, they may need a starter come mid-summer, with the rotation wearing thin, but in the long run it will be more useful to treat him carefully, not disrupting him with call ups. Drafting Ranaudo was certainly an investment, no doubt a calculated risk. But at the end of the day, all calculated risks are still risks, no matter how smart they may seem. For Anthony Ranaudo, we’ll know soon enough just how much a risk can pay off. One way or the other.