Dan Szymborski is the creator of the ZiPS projection system. Whether you have read his musings on Baseball Think Factory, ESPN.com or elsewhere, you’ve likely been introduced to his work. If not, you should become acquainted.
Adrian Gonzalez lead the hitters projections with a call for .297/.384/.526, 31 HR and 104 RBI. However, ZiPS doesn’t see Kevin Youkilis bouncing back much in 2012, projecting him to only improve ten points in batting average while holding a similar OBP. It’s also not buying into a bounce-back in the health department, after taking into account the fact that Youk has missed significant time over the past two seasons. I have to agree that Youk as an everyday third baseman increases his chances of missing time with one or more injuries, but if he can fend off the injury bug, I believe he should post much better numbers than this projection calls for.
One of the more interesting offensive projections is the .368 projected OBP for Dustin Pedroia. Pedey posted a career best .387 OBP last season and his .367 OBP in 2010 came in only 351 plate appearances. From 2007 through 2009, Pedroia posted OBPs of .380, .376, .371 so it seems odd that he would regress from an OBP of .387 to under .370 while he’s still in the prime of his career.
ZiPS doesn’t buy into Jacoby Ellsbury‘s huge power surge, projecting 16 long balls for 2012 and a drop on SLG by almost 100 points. A bit more concerning than that, however, is the .345 projected OBP, which is not great for a leadoff hitter. Of course, if Ellsbury hits a bunch of bombs during spring training, he might moved toward the middle of the order when the season starts. One player that hit like a nine-hole hitter last season was Carl Crawford. People are already calling his contract a major bust, but we’re only one year in and that year was comprised of an adjustment from quiet and calm Tampa Bay to the loud and fiery passion of Red Sox Nation as well as a hamstring and wrist injuries that clearly affected his production. ZiPS projects a bounce-back for Crawford to the tune of .282/.325/.448 with 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases. Still not the great numbers that Crawford had put up in the past, but a big improvement over last season.
Based on the 2012 ZiPS projections, the Sox had better not find themselves relying on young position players. Out of Ryan Kalish, Will Middlebrooks and Ryan Lavarnway, none are projected to hit over .260 or post an OBP above .320.
On the pitching side of things, Jon Lester leads the way with a 3.46 projected ERA and 186 strikeouts to 74 walks in 188 innings (8.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9). However, the projections for Clay Buchholz and Josh Beckett are somewhat concerning. Buchholz is projected for a solid 3.62 ERA, but in only 118.1 innings with no real improvement in his K/BB rate. Josh Beckett, who posted a 2.89 ERA in 193 innings last season, is projected to regress by almost one full run per nine innings to 3.80 and throw only 154 innings overall. Beckett did miss a big chunk of time in 2010 with back problems, but he had thrown at least 160 innings every season since 2005 up until then. ZiPS also projects that Beckett’s strikeout rate will regress to under eight strikeouts per nine, which would be the first time that would happen since 2006.
ZiPS projects a 3.03 ERA for Daniel Bard as a reliever with 75 strikeouts in 72 innings. As a starter, we should expect that strikeout rate to be lower and ERA a bit higher. I’ve voiced my concerns with expecting much from Alfredo Aceves as a starter. ZiPS projects a 3.76 ERA as a reliever, which would be a regression of over one run per nine innings.
These projections paint a picture of concern when it comes to the Red Sox’ biggest need: Pitching. The Sox will need more than 460 combined innings from Lester, Beckett and Buchholz in 2012, especially since Daniel Bard would have an innings limit as a starter.
Of course, these are only projections, not revelations. This time last year, many experts had the Sox as early favorites to win the World Series. They we’re projected to be such a team. However, as the games were played and the season wore on, things happened that weren’t — and probably couldn’t have been — projected. No matter what we think we know about baseball, the game still has an overwhelming ability to disprove even the best analysis. It’s what makes the game great and, at times, incredibly frustrating.