Did you realize that it’s been almost three weeks since Nick graced us with his last mailbag? Three weeks! That’s far, far too long if you ask me. Now that we’ve exited the doldrums that is late offseason, and we’ve treaded into Spring Training, we should start to see some more mail baggy goodness from Mr. Cafardo. (I’m praying.) Rather than putz around, I’m going to jump right in, and answer some questions.
What are your thoughts on a deal that would send Kevin Youkilis to the Marlins, who need a third baseman, for Hanley Ramirez, since we really need a shortstop?
How about no. Am I really the only person on the planet that’s not enamored with Han-Ram? Please, don’t get me wrong. Ramirez is an incredible talent, but he’s coming off of a down year (for him, not in general) in 2010 and a disasterous injury-riddled season in 2011. We’ve seen his groundball rate skyrocket to 51% from the low 40s over the last two seasons; his ISO drop over 100 points since 2008; and his defense go from being “moderately acceptable” to “Sweet Jesus, I feel like I’m watching a young Derek Jeter out there.” (No, that was not a compliment.)
We should be looking at it as “buying low” on Ramirez, and everyone keeps throwing in Youkilis and our prospect with our highest ceiling. Contrary to popular belief, Ramirez is not really a shortstop. There a reason they moved him over and not the newly acquired Jose Reyes. And let me tell you, they’re not keeping Reyes at short because of his unbelievable range at the position. It’s because Ramirez is actually worse. Maybe if Han-Ram bounces back early on in the season, he might be worth taking a serious run at obtaining. Until then, I do’t want to pay top dollar for a slumping player when I’m not convinced he’ll provide more production that Youkilis will in 2012.
Looking beyond 2012, obtaining Ramirez effectively closes the window on re-signing Jacoby Ellsbury. With Ramirez under contract at $16M in 2014, it’s hard envisioning a scenario where both players can remain on the payroll when the club will have other holes to fill.
Would the Red Sox be smart in pursuing David Wright? He’s not 30 until after the season and until last season (excluding his first season) he had played at least 140 games each year. Furthermore, if the Mets don’t get off to the start they want, they may be looking for someone to take him.
I like David Wright. The problem is that he’s had two poor seasons out the last three, and his defense has been abysmal at third base since 2009 according to DRS (-30 runs), UZR (-31.1 runs), and FRAA (-21.6 runs). At age 30, he probably still has something left in the tank, but I feel like a move to first base is in order. Unless he rediscovers his pre-Citi Field production (wOBA around .400), I don’t see him having a good enough bat to play at first and still provideing adequate value. While it’s possible Citi Field is severly hindering his offensive production, it hasn’t shown up in his home/road splits. He’s actually been a better hitter at home over the past two season than on the road. A change of scenary could help, but I’m not convinced it will. It looks like the David Wright we’ve seen since 2009 is the one we should expect going forward. Saddled with a $15M salary, I don’t see any reason to acquire him when we have Youkilis making $13M and capable of providing similar value.
After witnessing the Beckett interview this year, what kind of shape does he seem to be in?
Well, he’s fat and happy after he gorged on Popeye’s and Bud Light on Mardi Gras the other day. Expect more of the same going forward. Seriously though, the reports I’ve read have him in decent shape. No, he’s not in the Best Shape of his Life, but he’s also not bad enough to where the media establishment is screaming and crying about it.
According to Fangraphs, Mike Aviles has a career 12.4 UZR/150 at shortstop, which is much better than his numbers at second and third base, so why are people questioning his defense as a shortstop?
What??? A UZR sighting in the Cafardo mailbag?!!! Perhaps his readers aren’t rubes like I’d previously assumed! All things aside, his 12.4 UZR/150 isn’t all that much to write home about. Most of Aviles’s success at shortstop came during his 2008 season where he posted an 11.7 UZR in 747-2/3 innings. Since then, he’s been much closer to the league average in limited play at the position. Overall, his rating was produced in 1212 innings, which is roughly the equivalent of 135 games. UZR, despite all of it’s benefits, typically requires around three seasons worth of data to become reliable. So while his overall rating at shortstop is nice, its probably not representative of his abilities.
As for the second half of the question: can he play shortstop? Yes, I think he can. I have concerns about his range and arm, but I don’t think he’ll make a fool out of himself out there. Also, with Nic Punto as his backup, he has a reliable defensive replacement if necessary.
Could you please tell me why the Red Sox are playing games by offering an invite to Jason Varitek to come to spring training when they know it’s a waste of time? Couldn’t they just find a coaching job for him in the minors, where I think he could be a big help to not only the catchers, but also the pitchers that are on the way up in the system?
The offer was extended mostly out of respect. No, he’s not likely to take it, but we’d all be bitching if the Sox didn’t offer him something, right? As for a coaching position, how do you know the front office hasn’t approached about one? I doubt he’d take a job in the minors, but giving him a major league job now makes little sense. He’s too connected with the current roster to be an authority figure. Maybe a few years down the line, it’ll be possible.
If Jacoby Ellsbury has another solid year like he did in 2011 and you were Red Sox GM, what type of contract would you offer him if he hit free agency?
If he has another great season and one good season, I think he’ll command at least an eight year $160M deal in free agency. If he puts together two great seasons in 2012 and 2013, he and Scott Boras will probably try to break some new ground by seeking a nine or ten year deal at $22M per season. If it gets to that point, I’m passing all the way. He’s a tremendous talent, but I can’t see any way to justify signing any player for that length of time.
I’m interested in Ryan Westmoreland. Prior to his illness and surgery, he was considered a top prospect and future Red Sox outfielder. Considering all the “ifs” involved, what is the timetable for his return to full action and how would he be considered presently in the Red Sox plans?
If you followed him on Twitter (@RWesty25), you’d know that he’s working diligenty toward making a comeback. He was still toiling in low-A ball when the cavernous malformation in his brain was discovered. He’s only 21, so there’s still a chance he makes it. He’ll probably be about three years away from reaching the majors once he gets back on the field. Unfortunately, he hasn’t gotten back on the field yet, and I don’t know of any timeframe for him to return.
With Josh Beckett having one of his better seasons in Boston (and his career for that matter), can many people honestly have an issue with the clubhouse stuff? Accountability is one thing, but those couple September stinkers shouldn’t ruin what was otherwise, a good season.
Agreed. He had two rough September starts, and an otherwise tremendous season. His performance in late September was probably affected more by the fact he rushed back and pitched on a balky ankle than it was fried chicken and beer. I’m not excusing his behavior, but I’m also not condemning him either. The clubhouse scandal was an easy scapegoat to an otherwise complicated problem. The Boston media’s reliance on perpetuating such a fallacy is a testament to their general laziness.
Why does Bud Selig get so much praise from the owners (and $22 million a year) when he does not even have the spine to make a simple compensation decision.
As Nick stated in his version of the bag, Selig has turned the sport into a money making machine. I see your point though. It’s incredibly frustrating that it took him so long to not only intervene on the compensation issue, but also make a decision. If you think that’s bad, just ask the Oakland A’s what they think about his deliberate decision making process. They’ve been trying to figure out their stadium situation for years, and Selig has roadblocked time and again them by creating a “Blue Ribbon Commissions” and completing studies that have yielded no solutions. As a result, the A’s have been fledgling because it’s impossible to come up with an accurate long term plan without some closure with this situation. In reality, the Theo compensation, though frustrating, is practically meaningless in comparison to the limbo he’s put the A’s in.
I have been a proponent of going after Josh Hamilton for years and since Texas has declined to talk about extending his contract, would there be any interest from Boston? Also, I was opposed to getting Adrian Gonzalez because of what a position change could do to Kevin Youkilis and his longevity. Has his upside been worth the changes and money?
Hamilton is a supremely talented player for whom I have a ton of respect. That said, I don’t want him on the Red Sox unless he’s willing to take a three year deal at a discount. He’ll be in his age-33 season when he starts his next contract; is oft-injured; and won’t fit into the Red Sox short or long term financial plan. Great player. Bad timing for the Red Sox.
As for Youkilis, I don’t disagree that moving him to third may have hurt his durability. That said, A-Gon was slightly better offensively at the time of the trade, and he’s three years younger. That counts for an awful lot. Much of Youk’s decline has been a result of age and wear and tear on his body.
Do you think the Red Sox will do something for Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek at Fenway?
I certainly hope so. That would be the right thing for them to do. We will see.
Dice K is already throwing off the mound. Although he is often maligned in the press, he has always been a bulldog on the mound and a key to the 2007 championship. How early can he reasonably join the starting rotation this year?
I wouldn’t be surprised if he was back by mid-June or around July 1. I know this sounds crazy, but he could play a key role for the Red Sox this season; especially if the starting pitching suffers from injuries and poor performance. We can’t expect him to be anything but a back of the rotation guy at this point, but he could still provide some measurable value.
How will this pitching staff adjust without the presence of Jason Varitek?
According to some research done by Mike Fast, formerly of Baseball Prospectus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia was actaully better at framing pitches than Varitek. Honestly, I don’t think the effect will be that profound. There will be an adjustment period, but most of it will be mental on the pitcher’s behalf.
Are the Red Sox done making moves?
Never assume the Red Sox are done making moves. They’re constantly re-evaluating every position, every player, etc. Roy Oswalt is still available (and supposedly close to making a decision), and guys like Gavin Floyd and Matt Garza (among others) are still being whispered about in trade rumors. We will see.
Is David Ortiz worth $14.5 million?
Tough to answer. Performance wise, I think he was in 2011. In terms of public relations, I think he still is worth it. Will he worth that much on the field in 2012? I’m not so sure. After watching his strikeout rate steadily rise over the years, he suddenly cut it nearly in half last season. After three straight seasons of being a below-average hitter against lefties, he suddenly starts mashing them. To make it even more confusing, he did all of this in his age-35 season. That kind of stuff doesn’t happen normally. I’m going to liken his 2011 season to Derek Jeter’s 2009. It’s his last great season. We should still expect him to be effective at the plate this season, but we should probably expect his production to mirror 2010–not 2011.
Do you see any way the Sox can do anything with their pitching staff, and how do you think Valentine will come out of this? He has not impressed me.
Someone is Nick baiting!!! Let’s assume this person is serious for a second. How has Valentine not impressed you yet? He hasn’t managed any games for the Sox yet. Don’t you think you should give him a little time–perhaps, until after Opening Day–before you decide if he’s impressive or not? Just a thought.