If you have not yet read Sports Illustrated writer Will Carroll’s 2012 team health reports, stop what you are doing and read them now. Actually, finish reading this article first and then head over to Carroll’s reports. Since I do not want to take the work Carroll has done and simply regurgitate it here, I’m going to take the approach of what his findings could mean to the overall scheme of the 2012 season for the Sox.
Green Lights: Carl Crawford, Cody Ross, John Lester and Marc Melancon
Right off the bat, Carroll admits that Crawford’s high health ranking was generated before the information of his wrist surgery. We’ve all heard and read the reports that Crawford is likely going to miss the start of the season. Carroll reiterates what I wrote on February 17th, that media and fans may not be exactly helping the situation as the season draws near and Crawford still remains out of the lineup. The most important thing for Crawford right now is getting to a point where he feels he can play without hesitation or mental apprehension.
It’s great to see Lester in the green, especially after his missed a bit of time with a lat strain last season. As has been well documented, the Sox need their starting pitching to stay healthy, which as we will see later might not be in the cards.
Yellow Lights: Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Aviles, Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, Josh Beckett
A-Gone saw a drop in power last season and there has been some confusion in the information regarding how that shoulder felt late in the 2011 season. As Carroll states, normally one would expect power numbers to return a year removed from such an injury, but if A-Gone did indeed feel some discomfort late last season, there is at least somewhat of a shadow cast upon those expectations. Either way, Gonzalez has proven that he can make up for a loss in power by peppering the gaps and green monster as well as taking plenty of walks.
I have a feeling that Mike Aviles is going to be much more of a pivotal player for the Sox than most think. If he goes down with an injury, who’s his replacement? Nick Punto as a part-time player is at least understandable, but as a full-time shortstop? That would scare me a bit. Jose Iglesias is ready defensively, but his bat is sure to be a back hole of non-production.
Big Papi had a huge bounce-back season in 2011, but his size and age give Sox’ fans plenty of reason to be concerned. Carroll mentions Carlos Delgado as a scary comp, given that the former lefty slugger was out of the game at age 37 and Ortiz is 36 this season. I took a look at Ortiz’s most comparable players back in December. Ortiz will also have to prove that his incredible improvements against left-handed pitching last season were more than a one-year fluke.
Beckett’s mental an physical issues have come into question more than once, but he did bounce back with 193 superb innings last season, only missing a little time due to an minor ankle injury.
Red Lights: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Kevin Youkilis, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, John Lackey, Andrew Bailey
Yikes. Imagine if each of these players missed significant time to injury in 2012. Obviously nothing is expected from Lackey, but Buchholz and Bard make up two-fifths of the team’s penciled in rotation. While Bard falls into the red due to his falloff last September and sudden move to the rotation, Buchholz’s injury risk is much more interesting and much more worrisome in both the short and long term.
With Marco Scutaro no longer a part of the team, Mike Aviles, as mentioned above, goes from valuable super sub/injury replacement, to starting shortstop. In turn, it leaves the Sox with less than thrilling options to take the place of Youk should his body once again give in to the rigors of manning the hot corner.
Andrew Bailey, though a great acquisition if healthy, hasn’t exactly been a durable pitcher over his career. The comp that Carroll puts on his forearm strain from last season is quite interesting and alarming. Check out all of the Red Sox injury analysis here.
Interestingly, some of the Sox’ biggest offseason concerns seem unfixed as we head into the 2012 regular season. There still seems to be plenty of injury risk in the rotation and not a lot of dependable depth ready to fill the void should such injury’s occur. In this division, that could spell disaster once again.