The 2012 Boston Red Sox have thrown plenty of possible lineups at their opponents this spring, but there hasn’t been a consensus on what lineup would be best. The biggest question is who should hit leadoff this season. The old logic says a speed guy who steals bases of which the Red Sox have several. The new logic says you have your best on base guy bat leadoff, but not a big slugger, which the team no longer has.
The Red Sox have used Jacoby Ellsbury as a leadoff hitter for most of the previous four seasons and he has primarily fit the old model of leadoff hitter. A speed guy, but his average or slightly above average on base numbers left us wanting more. Then 2011 happened and Ellsbury became an MVP candidate with 30 home run power. The last thing you want is a power hitter hitting home runs with no one on base.
Perhaps once healthy the team could look at another old school leadoff hitter in Carl Crawford who steals bases in bunches, but struggles even more to get on base. Obviously he’s fallen behind schedule on his rehab and will not start the season with the team, but his poor OBP numbers make him a poor leadoff choice.
The best talent on the Red Sox at getting on base is Adrian Gonzalez, but once again slugging numbers dictate he belongs in the heart of the order. The same could be said for Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz who have bigger slugging numbers.
The option that hasn’t been interested or allowed to take the job is Dustin Pedroia. His walk rate isn’t amazing, but he still gets on base enough to justify him in the leadoff spot. His home run and power numbers won’t be wasted in the leadoff either. Not to mention Pedroia steals enough to warrant extra pitcher attention and benefits the hitter by drawing the first baseman to the bag.
For anyone not familiar the added benefit of a man on first a batter is about 14 points of wOBA. This is a significant swing in expected outcome and is largely due to the positioning of the first baseman. To take the biggest advantage of this you want a left handed batter at the plate.
This suggests the Red Sox should go with Pedroia leading off and any of the quality left handers including; Ellsbury, Youkilis or Gonzalez. The heart of the order is now very left handed by moving Pedroia up a spot, but Youkilis could be placed appropriately to break some of them up.
I can’t imagine the Red Sox placing Ellsbury in a spot where every game he is guaranteed an at bat with no one on base when he has shown his power swing. The team doesn’t have any elite leadoff hitters, but Pedroia fits the bill and should be the primary choice in 2012.