Its been 484 days since the Red Sox finalized a trade for all-star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, the player they envisioned as a franchise bat for years to come, and 480 days since they signed outfielder Carl Crawford to a lucrative 7-year, 142 million dollar deal. 111 days later, the front page of the Boston Herald declared the 2011 team as the best team ever, before they had played a game. 181 days after that, Robert Andino slapped a 1-1 pitch from Jonathan Papelbon into what little space separated Carl Crawford’s glove from the final out of the game, ending the free-falling Red Sox pursuit of what once seemed like a sure spot in the playoffs. On Thursday afternoon, winter will have lasted for 178 days, but it sure seems like its been longer than that.
I don’t have to tell you that a lot has happened in that time. Terry Francona, probably the greatest manager in Boston’s history, is gone; run out of town in a mess of lies and bad press. Theo Epstein, a man it was hard to imagine the front office without, took off for greener pastures in the North Side of Chicago. And now…Bobby Valentine.
Last year isn’t going away. Every losing streak the team has, questions regarding the collapse will start to surface. Even if they have a ten game lead in the East going into September, the media will still be talking about how it could all fall apart. Valentine is going to have to answer question after question about how he’s going to manage differently to avoid a repeat of last year. It won’t be easy.
That being said, it’s time to forget about what happened last September. I’m as guilty as anyone of reflecting too much on the collapse. It’s hard to think of this team without the aftertaste of last year reemerging. We all look for meaning in the game, romanticizing and making tragedy of events that may not have much meaning at all. “The Red Sox lost because Carl Crawford was terrible”, “The Red Sox lost because Terry Francona is addicted to pain medication”, “The Red Sox lost because the Boston Herald said they were the best team ever before they played a game.” We’ve heard it all. Here’s the truth: the Boston Red Sox lost last year because they didn’t have enough pitching depth, because their reliable starters began to pitch very poorly, and because the back end of the rotation was not nearly strong enough.
Did they fix that problem in the offseason? It’s an interesting debate. No, they didn’t go out and sign another reliable, durable, starting pitcher like the one the Yankees got in Hiroki Kuroda. What they did do is sign a plethora of low risk, potentially high reward starting pitchers. Think of all the pitchers the Sox could use at the back of the rotation: Bard, Doubront, Aceves, Cook, Ohlendorf, Padilla, and Miller all have potential. Not to mention the national treasure, Daisuke Matsuzaka is on schedule to return by June. Are they the best options in the world? Of course not, but they certainly an upgrade over Tim Wakefield, Kyle Weiland, and John Lackey. The most important thing is that when a starter inevitably goes down, the Sox will have available arms in the minors that should at least provide solid outings.
Yesterday, Aaron Cohn, the Senior Director of Corporation Partnerships for the Tampa Bay Rays tweeted this picture. The seat where Dan Johnson’s game tying home run with two outs in the ninth on the same day as Andino’s walkoff hit has been replaced with an all white seat, easily recognizable among the sea of blue chairs in the outfield. Dan Johnson is a career .235 hitter, who’s hit 53 home runs in 1520 plate appearances. But that’s the thing about history, sometimes all it takes is one at bat, in one game, on one day of a season that has over 162 of them. Robert Andino is a career .245 hitter, but that won’t stop the sinking feeling that every Red Sox fan has in their stomach when they hear his name.
The point is, we can sit here and make all the predictions and projections in the world, but at the end of the day, we really don’t know all that much at all. Do the Yankees and Rays look better than the Sox right now on paper? Yes, there’s no doubt. But the Red Sox were the favorites on paper last year, and we all know how that worked out.
Remember, Boston had the best offense in baseball last year, and the only bats they lost were J.D. Drew, Jason Varitek, Josh Reddick, and Jed Lowrie. The Sox are going to be OK, they’re going to compete.
There are plenty of things we don’t know. We don’t know who’s going to be the closer now that Andrew Bailey is out. We don’t know if Carl Crawford is going to rebound from last year’s disaster. We don’t know if Daniel Bard is going to be a successful starter. And we certainly don’t know the effect that Bobby Valentine is going to have on this team.
But there is one certainty. We know that in two days, baseball is back. And for now, that should be enough.