Dan Shaughnessy is already comparing the season to the sinking of the Titanic. The manager is already on the hot seat. Fans already want the closer replaced. It must be April in Boston.
158. That’s the number to keep in mind as we analyze the first four games of the Red Sox’ 2012 campaign. 158 because that’s how many games are left in this young season. 158 because after four games, the sample sizes are so small, that there almost is no point in even breaking down most players’ performances. 158 because if all goes right for the Sox, then by mid-July, none of what I’m about to say will even matter.
Let’s start where the season did: in Detroit. Over the course of one weekend, the Sox lost a heart breaker, got beaten to a pulp, and then proceeded to lose another heartbreaker. It’s hard to imagine an uglier series. (Well, I guess they could have lost 10-0 all three days, but you get the point.) To be honest with you, the easiest loss was the 10-0 game. At least that one was out of the question from the third inning on. Josh Beckett is pitching like it’s an even year (and coincidentally, it is), and that being the case, somehow it wasn’t surprising to see him surrender five long balls. The other two though, were shaping up to be big wins until the bullpen intervened.
You know a team is probably shaky when you’re talking yourself into almost the entire bullpen for the entirety of Spring. Bailey? “Sure, he’s had a spotty history with injuries, but all reports have him as healthy this year.” Whoops. Melancon? “Sure, he pitched for Houston last year, but all that talk about media presence and pressure is just baloney anyway.” Whoops. Aceves? “Well, you know what they say. You have to be a little crazy to be a closer, and he sure is crazy. How could he not succeed?” Whoops. And the list goes on. Except for Matt Albers, he’s just a lost cause.
Right now, and probably for the foreseeable future, the bullpen is Boston’s greatest weakness. That being said, if Beckett and Buchholz continue to pitch like they did in their respective starts, then the starting pitching depth will come to the national forefront soon, and it won’t be pretty.
Remember, the last two years, its taken Buchholz a few starts to find his groove, but when he has, he’s posted one of the best ERA’s in the major leagues. That being said, he’s not the fourth starter anymore, he has much more attention on him than he did before, and with that being the case, he’s going to have to figure things out pretty soon here, before the boo birds start flocking.
Speaking of starting pitching, all eyes will be on the player who is turning out to be the fulcrum of this team so far, a man who has yet to even throw out a pitch: Daniel Bard.
The future makeup of this team hinges on how Bard performs as a starter. If he struggles over his first few starts, then it seems likely that the front office will move him back to the bullpen, and the hunt will be on for a fifth starter. If he performs well in the starting role, then the Sox will continue to find ways to adapt the bullpen to find better results.
In a game that probably wasn’t a must-win, but felt like one anyway, Felix Doubront pitched, alright. Compared to the efforts of Beckett and Buchholz over the weekend, it looked like a Cy Young performance. Doubront continues to show that he is worthy of a slot in the rotation, even if he didn’t display dominating stuff. Four hits and three walks in five innings is a lot, but you’ll take the six strikeouts any day of the week. Doubront’s next two starts will come against the Rays and Yankees, so he’s about to get a trail by fire in the AL East. In two weeks, we’ll have a much better idea of what Doubront is capable of.
As advertised, manager Bobby Valentine has used three different lineups over the first four games. The most questionable decision, batting Nick Punto at leadoff on Sunday, actually ended up working out extremely well. I’ve been questioning Ryan Sweeney batting sixth, although he’s seven for fifteen, already notching two huge hits in the first four games. (The game tying triple against Detroit on Opening Day and the go-ahead single yesterday against Toronto.) Hard to argue with that. Besides from that, the offense has been pretty solid so far. Kevin Youkilis’ rough start is a tad concerning, it would be nice to see Youk bounce back here pretty quickly, especially with Will Middlebrooks already raking in the minors.
If last year taught us anything, it’s that every game matters. If the Sox had started 1-5, instead of 0-6, we would not be talking about the greatest collapse in the history of baseball. If they hadn’t lost two of three to both the Padres and Pirates in June, the season would have a whole different tune. There’s a fine line in baseball between overvaluing one game and undervaluing it. Obviously, it was not ideal for Boston to start 0-3 this year, but at the end of the day, it is only three games. If everything goes well, the sox are going to lose at least 65 games this year, so they have to come sometime. The fact that three of them happened in the first three games of the season is what it is.
Yes, the division could easily come down to one or two games, and then this weekend in Detroit could ultimately be costly. But on the other hand, the Sox could play .650 ball the rest of the way and win the division by over five games. In that case, the series in Detroit becomes something that every Boston is hoping for: a weekend that can be forgotten forever.