Even with the abysmal 12-18 start the Red Sox remain wild card favorites according to most projections. According to the OLIVER system used by HardballTimes.com the Red Sox are now projected as of 5/9/2012 to go 88-74 finishing second in the AL East behind the Yankees. The Angels would collect the second wild card spot to face the Red Sox if OLIVER is correct.
Using the PECOTA projections for the rest of 2012 at BaseballProspectus.com the Red Sox would go 87 – 75 (I rounded the projection from 86.7 – 75.3). This again would put the Red Sox second in the AL East behind the Yankees, but behind the Angels with 89 wins. The Red Sox and Angels would still meet in the Wild Card game. Their playoff odds according to BP are 55.4 percent.
The Red Sox are in a huge hole, but not one they can’t get out of. Of course we should revisit this in another month and if this slide continues obviously the projections only mean so much if you can’t live up to them.