Doubront – sittingstill.net’s Kelly O’Connor
The Red Sox have some decisions to make with their starting rotation in the coming weeks. For one, Clay Buchholz will be rejoining the rotation shortly, which will bump one of Aaron Cook or Franklin Morales back to the bullpen. Additionally, Daisuke Matsuzaka, provided his neck issues don’t keep him out for an extended period of time, will also eventually require a spot — that, or simply cutting ties with him. Add in that the Sox are actively looking for starting pitching leading up to the trade deadline, and there seems to be an impending logjam of starters.
That logjam includes Felix Doubront, who is thought to be on an innings count although there hasn’t been anything official about it. Most likely, he’s got a limit of 160 innings to his name. With just 89 2/3 innings to his name through his first 16 starts, however, the Sox may not have to contend with Doubront’s open spot until the end of the season. Both due to inconsistency, high pitch counts due to strikeouts and/or walks and a quick hook in general, Doubront has only averaged a shade under 5 2/3 innings in each start.
If Doubront’s innings cap is indeed 160 innings, that leaves him with 13 more starts, which should get him to the middle of September before he’s shut down. That’s a double-edged sword. On one hand, it’s great that Doubront’s innings have been managed to the point where they won’t have to replace him at the beginning of August, and can rely on him into September. On the other hand, Doubront’s innings cap will come into play perhaps at the most inopportune time for Boston. It’s looking more and more likely that the chase for October will come down to the last few weeks in September, and all of a sudden the Sox will have a vacant spot in the rotation. And that’s not even considering the fact that there will be an open spot in the rotation for the playoffs. The tail end of September is not a great idea to start throwing someone else in the rotation and expecting them to shoulder the load.
That’s why it makes sense for Boston to be looking for another starting pitcher. If they can acquire another No. 3 starter, that would enable the team to push Doubront back to a No. 5 starter’s role. That reduces Boston’s need to rely on him the last few weeks of September — and could even motivate the team to convert him to relief down the stretch and contribute that way. The need for a No. 5 starter is virtually non-existent in October, so the Red Sox wouldn’t have to worry about plugging the gap. This is all dependent on the Sox adding another pitcher, though. If they don’t, Boston will have some hard decisions to make.
Do they keep Doubront in the rotation as the No. 4 starter and simply concede they’ll have to suss out an acceptable replacement at the last minute out of a crew that will probably include Matsuzaka, Morales and Cook as the best options? There’s also Zach Stewart, acquired from the White Sox in the Kevin Youkilis deal, plus other unimpressive starters in Pawtucket. No, Matt Barnes won’t be swooping in to save the day. That, frankly, is not a very palatable outcome.
It might be best for the Sox to shut Doubront down as a starter sometime in August rather than let him play the string out. That would allow Doubront to start contributing out of the bullpen, as well as give the team time to figure out who will be representing the Red Sox down the stretch and (knock on wood) in October. There’s also consideration to be given toward Doubront slowing down earlier than anticipated. Throwing 90 major-league innings is a whole different beast than throwing in the minors, and Doubront’s hit the skids lately. Over his last five starts, he has a 5.93 ERA, having coughed up 34 hits in 27 1/3 innings and most recently issued five walks to the offensively-challenged Mariners on July 1.
Doubront has actually never really had a durable season in the rotation. In 2011, he spent time with the Red Sox out of the bullpen and mostly pitched out of the rotation in the minors, while battling injuries. As a result, he only threw 87 2/3 innings last year — and he’s already surpassed that mark this year. In 2010, he threw 110 innings. 2009 saw 121 innings. That’s not very much, so it’s easy to understand why he might be slowing down — or why he might not make it to 160 innings even if he stays in the rotation.
Whatever route the Sox take, and however well Doubront holds up, it’s obvious that the Sox will need a quality starter to replace him in the rotation when it matters. I doubt anyone thinks the Sox have such a pitcher in the organization currently — Matsuzaka and Cook are serviceable No. 5 starters, nothing more. Morales has a lot of promise, but it remains to be seen if the Sox will keep him in the rotation, and how his own inning limitations might affect matters. To that end, it’s no surprise Boston is on the hunt for starting pitching. If they can’t get another arm, it might have serious repercussions for Boston’s playoff hopes.